As we move into the weekend, the field shrinks and the stakes rise. Anything can happen in March.
We went 9-7 yesterday and now sit at 17-15 for the tournament. Still not where we want to be, but we’re trending in the right direction. Let’s keep the momentum going and get into today’s picks.
You’ll notice we’re backing a lot of chalk today, but it’s been that kind of tournament so far with very few upsets. And in today’s matchups specifically, several of these teams look like they could pull away.
Good luck, Sandman Nation. Enjoy the games.
No.9 Saint Louis v. No.1 Michigan (-12.5)
Both of these teams looked dominant in their first-round matchups, with Saint Louis arguably delivering the most impressive performance of the round, blowing out Georgia by 25 points.
These teams are more similar than they might appear. Saint Louis ranks eighth nationally at 87.7 points per game, while Michigan sits 10th at 87.2. Both rank in the top six in field goal percentage at around 51 percent, and both are top-25 in adjusted tempo, with Saint Louis at 19th and Michigan at 22nd.
The key for Michigan will be defending the three-point line. Saint Louis ranks second in the nation in three-point percentage at 39.8 percent, and if the Wolverines cannot limit those looks, they will be in trouble.
Despite the similarities, Michigan is clearly the more talented team. Getting off to a strong start will be critical, because Saint Louis has the offensive firepower to hang around regardless of the score.
This may be a risky pick given Michigan is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, but the Wolverines feel like a team playing with urgency, and I expect that to show.
Pick: Michigan -12.5
No.6 Louisville v. No.3 Michigan St (-4.5)
Louisville will once again be without star guard Mikel Brown Jr., and even if he were available, I would still lean toward Michigan State.
The Spartans are simply more talented and more physical, and they have the ability to dictate how this game is played. Jeremy Fears was the only Michigan State player to log more than 30 minutes in the first round, so this is a team that should be fresh and ready.
Meanwhile, Louisville had to battle to the wire against a USF team that never went away, which could show up here.
Michigan State is 5-2-1 against the spread against ranked opponents this season, and this sets up as a spot where they can control the game from start to finish.
Pick: Michigan St. -4.5
No.9 TCU (+11.5) v. No.1 Duke
Overall No. 1 seed Duke survived a major first-round scare against Siena, trailing 43–32 at halftime before ultimately escaping with a six-point win. The Blue Devils looked a bit complacent and were without two starters in Patrick Ngongba and Caleb Foster.
Ngongba is expected back in the lineup, which should help stabilize things, but Foster is set to remain sidelined.
On the other side, TCU picked up an impressive win over Ohio State in the first round, powered by its big three of Micah Robinson, Xavier Edmonds, and Davis Punch, who combined for 50 of the team’s 66 points.
That trio gives TCU the size and skill to compete at a high level, and if they play to that standard again, they have a real chance to keep this one close.
Pick: TCU +11.5
No.10 Texas A&M v. No.2 Houston (-11.5)
Texas A&M picked up a nice first-round win over Saint Mary’s, forcing 18 turnovers and holding one of the best rebounding teams in the country to just 11 offensive boards.
Rashaun Agee led the way with 22 points and six rebounds, but outside of that, no one else truly stood out for the Aggies.
Houston, meanwhile, handled Idaho with ease, powered by its standout freshmen. Kingston Flemings scored 18 points, while Chris Cenac Jr. controlled the glass with 18 rebounds.
A&M can create some chaos with its tempo and catch-and-shoot ability from three, but that style may not be enough here. Houston is the more complete and disciplined team, and it is hard to see the Aggies wearing them down over the course of the game.
Pick: Houston -11.5
No.11 Texas v. No.3 Gonzaga (-6.5)
Gonzaga looked unusually lackadaisical in its first-round game, shooting just 3-for-18 from beyond the arc and 49 percent overall.
That said, Mark Few is 9-1 in his last 10 Round of 32 appearances, and it is difficult to see one poor shooting performance carrying over.
Texas, meanwhile, is set to play its third game in five days and has been surviving by crashing the boards. That becomes far more challenging when facing a strong rebounding team like Gonzaga, especially with fatigue becoming a factor.
After the cold shooting performance, expect Gonzaga to lean more on Graham Ike and establish a physical presence inside. That is an area where Texas could struggle, and I just can’t see them holding up over the course of the full game.
Pick: Gonzaga -6.5
No.11 VCU v. No.3 Illinois (-10.5)
VCU was phenomenal when it mattered in their first game, erasing a 19-point second-half deficit and riding a 34-point performance from Terrence Hill Jr. to an overtime win.
The biggest disparity in this matchup is Illinois’ size. The Illini start four players at 6-foot-6 or taller, including 7-foot-1 center Tomislav Ivisic, while VCU has just one player above 6-foot-8.
Illinois did allow 1.03 points per possession against Penn in the first round, but that game was well in hand, with the Illini winning by 35.
VCU’s tempo could create some issues. The Rams rank 117th in adjusted tempo compared to Illinois at 276th, and they will look to speed the game up.
Still, Illinois’ length and defensive presence should be the difference, and it is difficult to see VCU consistently finishing over that size advantage.
Pick: Illinois -10.5
No.5 Vanderbilt v. No.4 Nebraska (-1.5)
We’re in for a great matchup here as Vanderbilt’s high-powered offense faces Nebraska’s shutdown defense.
Vanderbilt has been elite offensively, averaging 86.1 points per game, driven by its backcourt. Tyler Tanner leads the way at 19 points per game, while Duke Miles adds just over 16. This is a fast-paced offense that thrives in transition and from beyond the arc, which could present problems for Nebraska.
That said, Nebraska is not lacking offensively. The Cornhuskers knock down 10.6 threes per game, ranking 16th nationally, and have the ability to keep pace if this turns into a shootout.
This will be one of the better games of the round so be sure to watch. In the end, Vanderbilt’s offensive firepower will be the difference.
Pick: Vanderbilt -1.5
No.12 High Point v No.4 Arkansas (-11.5)
High Point head coach Flynn Clayman said his team was ready to play anyone, and in its first real test against a high-major opponent, it delivered. The Panthers pulled off a stunning upset over Wisconsin, knocking down 15 threes, led by Chase Johnston, who hit four from deep. Johnston has quickly become one of the more entertaining players in the tournament, even attempting and converting his first two-pointer of the season in that game.
Arkansas, on the other hand, had little trouble with Hawaii, cruising to a 19-point win. What stands out even more is that the Razorbacks nearly reached 100 points despite shooting just 4-for-21 from beyond the arc.
Both teams are strong offensively and take care of the ball, which is critical in this setting. High Point committed just six turnovers against Wisconsin, a key factor in their win.
The Panthers have the ability to keep this competitive, but Darius Acuff and Arkansas’ overall talent will ultimately be too much.
Pick: Arkansas -11.5
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