As the field narrows, the final twelve teams sit within reach of a title, but still have work to do. We turn to the second slate of the Sweet 16, featuring a mix of powerhouse programs and teams looking to extend their runs. Let’s break down the matchups and dive into the ATS angles.
No.5 St. John’s (+6.5) v. No.1 Duke
I am extremely confident that the winner of this matchup will go on to take the region. Duke’s path to the Sweet 16 has been far from convincing. The Blue Devils were tied with Siena late in the Round of 64 and then had to battle TCU before finally pulling away. They haven’t quite looked the same without Caleb Foster, and that likely won’t change, though the return of Patrick Ngongba, who played just 13 minutes against TCU, is a positive.
St. John’s, meanwhile, continues to roll. The Red Storm have now won eight straight and 21 of their last 22, going 15-7 against the spread during that stretch. Their Round of 32 win over Kansas wasn’t perfect, as they let a 14-point lead slip, but Dylan Darling’s buzzer-beater bailed them out.
This sets up as a tight, intense game. For St. John’s, it likely comes down to perimeter shooting. They’ve struggled from deep in the tournament, hitting under 35% in both games, going just 21-for-64 from three. Bryce Hopkins has been the exception, including a 6-for-9 performance from beyond the arc in the last round.
The offense will run through Hopkins and Big East Player of the Year Zuby Ejiofor, and with Rick Pitino’s 12-1 record in the Sweet 16, there’s reason to trust the experience on this side. If St. John’s gets just enough shooting, they have a strong case to punch their ticket to the Elite Eight.
Pick: St. John’s +6.5
No.4 Alabama v. No.1 Michigan (-9.5)
There’s no doubt Michigan is the better team in this matchup, both in terms of talent and coaching. Alabama has been impressive with wins over Hofstra and a JT Toppin-less Texas Tech team, but this feels like the end of the road.
Michigan just dealt with a fast-paced, three-point-heavy team in St. Louis last round. Alabama takes that style even further, ranking fourth in adjusted tempo and leading the nation with 35.6 three-point attempts per game. If the Crimson Tide are hitting from deep, they can keep this close, but that’s a tough way to live for forty minutes.
The biggest edge for Michigan is inside. Their size should create problems all game, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see their bigs control the paint. It sets up well for a strong defensive showing, especially with the Wolverines ranking third nationally in blocks per game.
Michigan has struggled against the spread lately, going 2-8 in its last ten, but this is still a roster loaded with high-end talent. The only real question is Aden Holloway’s status. He’s been cleared to travel, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be available.
Either way, Michigan should have enough to get through and move on.
Pick: Michigan -9.5
No.3 Michigan St. (+1.5) v. No.2 UConn
These two teams are nearly identical statistically. Michigan State averages 79.3 points per game on 47.4% shooting while allowing 68.4, while UConn puts up 77.5 points on 48.2% shooting and gives up 65.1. With Michigan State ranked ninth in KenPom and UConn right behind at tenth, this sets up as one of the best schematic matchups of the tournament.
UConn’s success has centered around two players. Alex Karaban is coming off a 27-point performance, while Tarris Reed Jr. has dominated the glass with 40 rebounds over the last two games. That presents a real challenge, but Michigan State is well-equipped to handle it. The Spartans rank first in the nation in limiting offensive rebounds and ninth in offensive rebounding themselves, so controlling Reed will be a key factor.
On the other side, Michigan State’s offense needs to continue running through Jeremy Fears, who has dished out 27 assists in the first two rounds. The concern is ball security, as he’s averaging 4.5 turnovers per game in the tournament. Cleaning that up will be critical in a matchup this tight.
Michigan State sits at 19-15 against the spread this season, and getting them as an underdog here adds to the appeal. There’s a lot to like about the Spartans in this spot.
Pick: Michigan St. +1.5
No.6 Tennessee v. No.2 Iowa St. (-3.5)
Iowa State hasn’t gotten the respect it deserves. The Cyclones handled Tennessee State and Kentucky with ease, winning by a combined 190-137 margin, and they’ve now covered in six straight games, five of those coming by an average of 29 points.
The one vulnerability for this group is perimeter defense. Iowa State allowed the second-highest three-point rate in the Big 12, which can open the door for an upset. That concern is somewhat mitigated here, though, as Tennessee is not a team built around the three, ranking 330th nationally in three-point rate.
That’s not to say Tennessee isn’t dangerous. The Volunteers are aiming for a third straight Elite Eight and have been one of the most consistent programs in the country. However, in each of the past two years they made that run as a No. 2 seed and didn’t face a team like Iowa State this early.
For Tennessee to stay competitive, it will need to dominate the glass. That won’t come easy. Iowa State ranks inside the top 50 nationally in offensive rebound rate and can match that physicality.
Joshua Jefferson remains a game-time decision, but regardless of his status, Iowa State has the depth, toughness, and form to get this done. Laying a couple of buckets feels justified here.
Pick: Iowa St. -3.5
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