Since 1985, 35% of national champions have not been No. 1 seeds. There have also been only two seasons, 2008 and 2025, where all four No. 1 seeds reached the Final Four.
Top seeds can, and do, get beat every year. That makes picking a champion from outside the top lines not only viable, but a smart bracket strategy.
The 4- and 5-seeds are often where brackets start to crack. These teams sit just behind the locked-in favorites, looming quietly, and sometimes loudly, reminding everyone that seeding means very little once the Madness begins. Outside the 1-3 lines are under-seeded conference champions, dangerous offenses, and loaded rosters capable of blowing up even the safest picks.
In this year’s field, five of the most dangerous teams outside the 1–3 lines are Arkansas, Alabama*, St. John’s, Vanderbilt, and Kansas. VCU deserves a look as well, but for me, the Rams land just outside that group as the top upset-minded honorable mention.
So let’s take a closer look at a few teams just outside the top lines that could be poised to surprise.
Arkansas is the strongest 4-seed in the tournament
Arkansas feels like the biggest threat here. The Razorbacks were the No. 16 overall team on the committee’s seed list, won the SEC Tournament, and have a roster built for ugly, physical, second-weekend basketball.
The headliner is Darius Acuff Jr., who averaged 22.9 points and 6.5 assists per game, the kind of lead guard production that screams March problem. Trevon Brazile adds 7.4 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per night, and Meleek Thomas gives them another reliable scoring option on the wing. This is not a one-man show pretending to be a contender.
The résumé backs it up. Arkansas beat Louisville 89-80, Texas Tech 93-86, Auburn 83-79, and Alabama 88-75 before finishing with the SEC Tournament crown. That combination is why Arkansas feels more dangerous than a typical 4-seed.
It has elite guards, frontcourt length, and enough proven wins to show the ceiling is not theoretical. This team is dangerous
Alabama must be in the conversation, despite the uncertainty
If we are talking about the best teams outside the top three in each bracket, Alabama can light it up. The Crimson Tide were No. 14 overall on the committee’s sheet, and the firepower is obvious.
Labaron Philon Jr. averaged 21.7 points and 4.6 assists, Aden Holloway added 16.8 points, Amari Allen contributed 11.6 points and 7.1 rebounds, and Aiden Sherrell chipped in 11.2 points with 2.3 blocks. That is a lot of offense for a team that averaged 91.7 points per game.
Alabama has beaten several of this year’s top contenders, including Clemson (90-84), St. John’s (103-96), Illinois (90-86), South Florida (104-93), and Arkansas (117-115). That is more than enough punch to make the Tide a legitimate threat.
One major concern though is availability. Alabama’s No. 2 scorer, Aden Holloway*, was suspended on Monday, March 16, after being arrested for possession of marijuana. He will not travel for the Round 1 matchup against Hofstra, and his status moving forward remains unclear which makes the pick a true wildcard.
Vanderbilt might be the best value play in this tier
Vanderbilt has the résumé and just enough disrespect to turn into a real problem. The Commodores were the No. 17 overall team on the committee’s seed list, yet landed on the 5-line after reaching the SEC Tournament final.
Tyler Tanner is the engine, averaging 19.1 points and 5.1 assists. Duke Miles brings defensive chaos with 2.7 steals per game, Devin McGlockton leads the team with 6.7 rebounds, and Tyler Nickel adds real scoring punch. It is a balanced group, but Tanner is the one who makes everything go.
And the big wins are not hard to find. Vanderbilt beat Alabama 96-90, crushed Kentucky 80-55, won at Auburn 84-76, won at Tennessee 86-82, beat Tennessee again 75-68 in the SEC Tournament, and then blasted No. 4 Florida 91-74 in the semifinal.
That is why the Commodores feel under-seeded rather than simply solid. The résumé looks like a second-weekend team wearing a 5-seed costume.
St. John’s has a 5-seed next to its name, and it doesn’t fit
Rick Pitino’s group won the Big East regular-season title, won the Big East Tournament, and still landed on the 5-line as the No. 18 overall seed.
Senior forward Zuby Ejiofor leads the Red Storm, averaging 16.3 points, 7.1 rebounds, 3.5 assists, and 2.1 blocks. Bryce Hopkins added 13.5 points and 6.2 rebounds, and the backcourt provided enough toughness and scoring to make the whole thing work. Not to mention Pitino himself acts as a sixth man, bringing added weight in tight moments.
The wins are what make this case. St. John’s beat Creighton 90-73 on the road, handled Marquette 92-68, beat No. 3 UConn 81-72 in February, and then dominated UConn again 72-52 in the Big East title game.
That is not a team that padded its record against lower-tier competition. This is a team with top-end wins, a veteran star, and a coach who has seen every possible version of March.
VCU is an honorable mention
The Rams always seem to be a spoiler threat come March. They finished the season 27-7, including an Atlantic 10 Tournament championship.
They bring a balanced attack led by Terrence Hill Jr. at 14.4 PPG, with Lazar Djokovic adding 13.5 PPG. They also beat Dayton three times, including in the A-10 title game.
The market still has North Carolina favored by 2.5 at DraftKings as of Monday afternoon. That feels about right, but so does taking the points with VCU and seeing how it plays out.
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