By now, most people have had a chance to study their brackets, identify a few teams they believe can win it all, and figure out which contenders they may want to avoid.
But there is another factor worth considering: the Cinderella teams that can wreck a bracket with one big night.
In March, any upset is possible, and these teams have already shown many of the traits that make for a dangerous Cinderella pick. Here are a few teams you should think twice about picking against when filling out your bracket.
Akron
Forget Miami (OH)’s gaudy 31-1 record. This is the MAC team that can actually bust brackets. Akron went 29-5, and four of the Zips’ five losses came against teams that won either their conference’s regular season or tournament title. The fifth, Murray State, still made the NIT.
The Zips drew the wrong matchup last year against Arizona, as the Wildcats were completely comfortable playing at Akron’s pace. That should not be the case with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders prefer a much slower tempo, and there is a real chance Akron can speed this game up and make Texas Tech uncomfortable.
There is also the reality that Texas Tech is not the same team without JT Toppin. He is out for the year, and the Red Raiders looked out of sorts without him in a 22-point loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 Tournament. They have now dropped three straight.
Akron, meanwhile, should be far more comfortable in this spot than it was a year ago. This has all the makings of the classic 5-12 upset.
Santa Clara
When a team consistently gets a shot up at the end of a possession, good things tend to follow. Santa Clara does that as well as almost anyone in the country. The Broncos rank third nationally in ending possessions with a shot, and they rebound well enough to create second chances.
They also have an experienced coach who knows how to navigate March. Herb Sendek is 6-2 all-time in the first round, guiding Miami (OH), NC State, and Arizona State to opening-game wins. And in his two losses, his teams were right there, NC State fell to California in overtime in 2003, and Arizona State lost on a buzzer-beater to Texas in 2014.
Kentucky, on the other hand, has been far more erratic. The Wildcats closed the season just 3-6, and only one of those wins came against a team seeded better than 10th in the NCAA Tournament.
Santa Clara has a very real chance to pull the upset.
Hofstra
With Alabama’s Aden Holloway facing drug charges following a recent arrest, Hofstra’s first-round matchup has gone from difficult to far more manageable. Alabama still has plenty of talent, but the Crimson Tide will have to adjust without Holloway.
Hofstra forces opponents to play uncomfortable basketball, which is not how Alabama prefers to operate. The Crimson Tide want to push tempo and maximize possessions, and that becomes more difficult when you are without one of your guards. Hofstra allows a high volume of shots, but not at an efficient rate, suggesting the Pride do a good job forcing opponents into less-than-ideal looks.
Just as importantly, Hofstra shoots the 3-pointer well. That is a necessity for any smaller program looking to pull an upset in March, especially against a team like Alabama.
This sets up as a favorable matchup for the Pride.
South Florida
With Mikel Brown hampered by injury, South Florida suddenly has an opportunity. The Bulls want to play fast, as Bryan Hodgson comes from Nate Oats’ system at Alabama. They force turnovers, rebound well, and consistently get to the free throw line.
The concern is shooting, which is not a strength for South Florida. But the Bulls defend well, and if Louisville struggles to find a rhythm without Brown, that weakness may not matter. Their style is built on creating free throw opportunities and making life difficult for opposing offenses, which is a perfectly viable formula in March.
With Louisville less than 100%, that could be enough.
McNeese State
The Cowboys could have asked for a better matchup. Vanderbilt has the personnel to limit what McNeese State does best, as the Commodores take care of the basketball at a high level. That matters against a McNeese team that leads the nation in points off turnovers.
Even so, the upset path is there. McNeese won this spot last year against Clemson and enters having won 14 of its last 15 games. The Cowboys consistently end their possessions with shots, and they make it difficult for opponents to do the same.
If Vanderbilt is not sharp from the opening tip, McNeese can put them in catch-up mode quickly. That is exactly how the Cowboys handled Clemson a year ago, and there is no reason to expect a different approach here.
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