The NBA Defensive Player of the Year race is boiling down to Victor Wembanyama against the 65-game requirement. As of March 9, Wembanyama remains eligible for the award and is listed as an overwhelming -1500 favorite at FanDuel.
Chet Holmgren and Rudy Gobert remain Wembanyama’s closest challengers in the betting markets. The top three have largely separated themselves this season, while a group that includes Scottie Barnes, Bam Adebayo, and the Thompson twins continues to battle for down-ballot support.
With the regular season entering its final stretch, here’s how the Defensive Player of the Year race currently stacks up.
1. Victor Wembanyama
Over his last 10 games, Wembanyama has recorded 45 blocks and 12 steals. San Antonio has won nine of those contests, with his defensive presence playing a major role in the Spurs’ surge.
Without Wemby on the floor, the Spurs rank among the league’s bottom 10 defenses. When he plays, they perform at an elite level on that end.
His impact goes well beyond blocking shots or contesting layups. Wembanyama’s presence and extraordinary length reshape the floor defensively. Opponents frequently pass up shots they would normally take, and the number of attempts at the rim drops significantly when he is in the game.
At this point, we may be watching one of the most individually impactful defensive players the league has ever seen.
2. Chet Holmgren
Holmgren is neck-and-neck with Wembanyama in defensive win shares. He is averaging 1.1 fewer blocks per game, however, and has struggled to keep pace as Wembanyama continues to post remarkable defensive box scores.
As impactful as Holmgren has been, his numbers simply do not stand out in the same way. Oklahoma City has owned the league’s best defense since the All-Star break, even with Holmgren missing a couple of games.
In most seasons, Holmgren would be the clear frontrunner for this award. This season, however, belongs to Wembanyama. As strong as Holmgren has been defensively, his impact still falls short of San Antonio’s superstar.
3. Rudy Gobert
Minnesota ranking 12th in defensive rating since the All-Star break has hurt Rudy Gobert’s Defensive Player of the Year chances. For much of the season, the Frenchman looked well positioned to win the award if Wembanyama failed to reach the games played threshold.
Advanced metrics still rate Gobert highly, though not quite at the level of his peak seasons. He ranks seventh in defensive win shares and fourth in expected defensive plus-minus.
The Timberwolves remain heavily reliant on Gobert. Their defensive rating worsens by roughly 10 points when he is off the floor. Opponents attempt far more mid-range shots and get to the rim far less often when Gobert is on the court.
4. Derrick White
At least six players have a legitimate case for the fourth spot on this month’s DPOY rankings. Derrick White gets the nod largely because of his consistency on the defensive end for Boston.
Advanced metrics also rate White highly. He ranks seventh in estimated defensive plus-minus, according to Dunks and Threes, and has been a key factor in Boston maintaining the league’s fifth-ranked defense in a season that was expected to bring some regression.
White may not generate as many deflections or steals as some other backcourt defenders, but he is an excellent shot blocker for his position and provides invaluable versatility on the defensive end.
5. Scottie Barnes
Scottie Barnes deserves significant credit for Toronto ranking seventh in defensive rating. Only three players, two of whom occupy the top spots on this DPOY list, have posted a higher defensive win shares total than Barnes.
CraftedNBA also rates Barnes as the most versatile defender among players with All-Defense cases. He routinely draws some of the most difficult defensive assignments in the league despite carrying a heavy offensive workload.
The final spots on this hypothetical ballot remain very much unsettled, so Barnes could still slide off this ranking before the regular season ends.
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