The betting markets suggest the NBA MVP race is nearly decided. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming favorite, but debate continues around the cases for Victor Wembanyama and Luka Dončić.
Fringe contenders Cade Cunningham and Tyrese Maxey have seen their chances fade due to injuries, while the 65-game minimum still looms over the entire field.
Here’s how our ballot would look if the season ended today.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Nikola Jokić and a handful of rim-finishing centers are the only players with a higher true shooting percentage than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Among guards, he stands alone, producing a level of efficiency that’s rarely been seen, reflected in his league-leading win shares per 48 minutes.
He’s taken another step forward from 2024–25, and at his peak, Gilgeous-Alexander is operating in rarified air, approaching the kind of impact associated with Michael Jordan.
His defensive value also deserves attention when comparing him to other elite guards. Add in the consistency of his shot-making from all areas of the floor, and it’s clear why he’s been so difficult to limit.
2. Victor Wembanyama
The question with Wembanyama comes down to workload. San Antonio is 16.8 points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor, which speaks to his impact, even if his offensive numbers don’t match those of other MVP contenders.
He also trails the other frontrunners significantly in minutes, at least 200 behind most and nearly 500 behind Luka Dončić. Some of that gap reflects comfortable wins, but it’s also the Spurs managing the league’s most valuable long-term asset.
The combination of lower minutes and scoring volume likely keeps Wembanyama out of the top spot this year. There will be plenty of opportunities ahead, and a First Team All-NBA selection along with Defensive Player of the Year in 2026 still represents a dominant season.
3. Luka Dončić
Dončić leads the league in usage rate and ranks fourth in offensive win shares. He sits just behind Wembanyama in true shooting percentage, and improved conditioning has led to more consistent defensive effort in recent weeks.
Ranking first in scoring, three-pointers made per game, and free throw attempts highlights Dončić’s offensive workload and versatility. He’s also averaging 8.2 assists and 2.1 stocks, reinforcing his all-around production.
The Los Angeles Lakers’ 15-5 surge, driven largely by Dončić, has pushed him back into the MVP conversation. It’s likely too late for him to seriously contend for the award, but his offensive output warrants a spot on the ballot.
Defensive inconsistency remains the black mark, keeping him behind Wembanyama and well short of the efficiency level set by Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
4. Nikola Jokić
It’s difficult to fully assess this season from Jokić. He leads the NBA in VORP and ranks second in win shares per 48, while also operating at a historic pace in assists and rebounds, all alongside 27.9 points per game.
His MVP case, however, has lost some momentum since returning from injury. During that stretch, his production has been excellent rather than overwhelming, and Denver Nuggets hit a brief lull before their recent surge.
Placing Jokić atop the ballot would be easy to justify. At the same time, the race appears to have shifted slightly away from him. That speaks to the level of the competition, as it’s entirely possible he finishes outside the top three.
5. Kawhi Leonard
Leonard ranks fifth in both VORP and win shares per 48, but sits six games shy of the 65-game minimum. If he qualifies, he’s likely to receive significant down-ballot support, and deservedly so.
This has been his best regular season since leaving San Antonio. His 108 TS+ is his top mark since the pandemic season, driven in part by his highest free throw rate since 2019–20.
Leonard is also generating steals at his highest clip since joining the Los Angeles Clippers, all while averaging a career-high 28.2 points per game.
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