Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the overwhelming betting favorite to win NBA MVP in 2026. Injuries to Nikola Jokić and Giannis Antetokounmpo have deprived us of a true competition for the award, though the Joker has returned from injury early enough to still be eligible.
Gilgeous-Alexander topped our rankings four weeks ago ahead of Jokić. Cade Cunningham placed third with Jaylen Brown rounding out the top five. There have been significant changes since early January, though SGA remains in pole position to become only the fifth guard (joining Magic Johnson, Michael Jordan, Steve Nash, and Steph Curry) to win back-to-back MVP awards. Let’s take a look to see where things stand as February begins to heat up.
1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Second in scoring and markedly more efficient than he was in his 2024-25 MVP campaign, Gilgeous-Alexander is having another all-timer of a season.
Jokić, Mark Williams, Deandre Ayton, and Antetokounmpo are the only players with better true shooting marks. Much of that can be attributed to SGA draining 39.1% of his shots from beyond the arc, while maintaining his trademark high free throw rate.
The Thunder aren’t going to break the regular-season win record as they threatened to earlier in the season, but they are still barrelling to the top overall seed. With Jalen Williams’ persistent injury issues, Gilgeous-Alexander’s value is even greater.
2. Cade Cunningham
Just outside the top 20 in scoring, Cunningham is leading the NBA in assists, recording 2.4 stocks per game, and carrying the Pistons to a formidable lead in the Eastern Conference.
He’s effective in a physical defense. Detroit’s offense is barely breathing when he’s off the floor, with their offensive rating dropping by nine points per 100 possessions when he’s on the bench. The Pistons hold a +9 net rating with Cunningham on the floor, with an offense that would be just behind Denver and Boston for the best in the Association.
What Cunningham is doing would be enough to win MVP in many other years. Yes, Gilgeous-Alexander is having the better individual season, but for pure impact, this should be considered a much closer race.
3. Jaylen Brown
Boston has the NBA’s second-best offense and is tied with Detroit for the best net rating. Four players are scoring more points than Brown, plus he’s at a career-high in rebounds and assists.
With the emphasis on ‘valuable’ when evaluating for this award, there’s no way Brown can be ahead of Cunningham. Boston’s offense produces at the same efficiency when he’s off the floor and their defense is even better.
Maybe Joe Mazzulla is such a good coach his stars can never quite get to MVP level. Perhaps that’s just where Brown and Jayson Tatum sit in the NBA hierarchy. A top-three finish would be an immense achievement for Brown given the expectations for Boston coming into the season.
4. Nikola Jokić
How can the world’s best player be fourth? Some players have played 17 more games than the Joker.
As great as Jokić is, and he’s undeniably been the best player in the NBA this season, that volume deficit is hard to compensate for.
If he doesn’t miss another game, there could be a real conversation about Jokić winning this award. Denver, despite treading water in his absence, is -3.3 per 100 possessions without Jokić. He’s averaging a triple-double and leads the NBA in true shooting percentage.
FanDuel prices Jokić as second favorite right now behind Gilgeous-Alexander. He’s fourth in these rankings but could leapfrog Cunningham and Brown by the time of our next MVP ladder.
5. Luka Dončić
The numbers are gaudy for Dončić once again. He leads the NBA in scoring and is averaging 8+ in the assist and rebound categories.
The Lakers, though, only have a +0.7 net rating in his minutes and are -1.5 when he’s off the floor. Los Angeles isn’t dependent in Dončić in the way like Detroit or Denver are with their star men.
The top three in this ranking are, at worst, solid defenders. No one is being that generous about Dončić’s contribution on the defensive end. This is a middling Lakers team, and if that were mainly due to the team cratering when Dončić was on the bench, he’d have a more compelling argument to be in the top four.
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