Cooper Flagg avoided a serious injury when he rolled his ankle against the Denver Nuggets last week. The first overall pick still missed multiple games, however, creating greater uncertainty in what looks set to be an intriguing Rookie of the Year race.
Kon Knueppel, VJ Edgecombe, and Derik Queen are legitimate contenders for the award. FanDuel prices Flagg as the overwhelming favorite, but it wouldn’t take much for any of that trio to change that.
Dylan Harper, Cedric Coward, Jeremiah Fears, and Ace Bailey are among the other rookies enjoying strong seasons.
1. Cooper Flagg
Prior to rolling his ankle against the Nuggets, Flagg had posted three 20-point games in his last four outings. Over a 20-game period, he was averaging 22/6/5, while taking 5.5 free throw attempts per game.
It’s not translated to a run of wins just yet, but the way Flagg has developed in his first half-season as an NBA player is incredibly encouraging for the Mavericks. Dallas’ future depends on Flagg living up to expectations and becoming a multi-year All-Star at the very least.
The defense has been impressive, using his size and quickness to defend on the perimeter and occasionally going up against bigger players inside. As it stands, Flagg’s numbers make him the clear Rookie of the Year favorite, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion, particularly with the Mavs likely to tank down the stretch.
2. Kon Knueppel
Knueppel has missed one game all year. Over his last 20, he’s just shy of 47% from beyond the arc, while averaging 20.1 points, 4.9 rebounds, and 4.1 assists.
Don’t be fooled by his reputation as a sharpshooter. Yes, he is one of the best perimeter shooters in the NBA, and on high volume, but Knueppel does much more than fire shots from deep, as shown by his 4.1 assists per game.
Charlotte is putting the ball in Knueppel’s hands to run pick-and-rolls occasionally. His versatility is impressive for a 20-year-old as he’s in the top 12 among movement shooters in efficiency from handoffs, running off screens, and as a spot-up shooter.
3. VJ Edgecombe
Edgecombe is absolutely fearless. He’s taking clutch shots for the contending Sixers. He plays like a five-year veteran, not a young guard who turns 21 after the end of this season.
His recent numbers are a long way from Flagg and Knueppel’s marks. Much of that is down to Edgecombe sharing the floor with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and Paul George. He’s still at 15 points per game for the season, and he’s draining 38.2% of his three-point shots.
Aggressive with the ball in his hands, he seems to be able to get to the rim at will. A 6’8 wingspan helps him on the defensive end where he’s often having to guard the opponent’s best perimeter player.
4. Derik Queen
Ten double-doubles, including a couple of triple-doubles, is going to attract a lot of voters to Queen. A highly intelligent passer from the post or elbows, he’s been one of the bright sparks in a grim season for the Pelicans.
New Orleans being -8.4 with Queen on the floor is not entirely down to their rookie center, but a defensive rating around 123 when he’s on the floor is a problem. On offense, as much as he makes things easier for his teammates, his aggressiveness as a scorer comes and goes.
There are too many games where Queen doesn’t record a single free throw attempt. His efficiency from the field is mediocre at best. While clearly a talented player, the flaws are significant for the position he plays, so there’s no way Queen can be higher than fourth at the moment.
5. Cedric Coward
Over his last 16 games, Coward is scoring more than 15 points per game with seven-plus boards, and better than 60% on two-point shots.
Memphis is 5.8 points better per 100 possessions with Coward on the floor. That level of impact is rare for a rookie. While there is some noise in the data, Coward deserves real credit for elevating the team on both ends of the court.
Don’t be surprised if Coward has an even bigger offensive role for the Grizz going forward with Ja Morant on the trade block. The fact he’s been scoring efficiently even when his three-ball isn’t falling consistently is very encouraging for the Grizzlies, who appear to have a core player if they choose to tear it down.
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