Even with almost half of the regular season in the books, teams’ records at this stage don’t tell us everything. There are teams that have barely been whole. Others have been particularly unlucky in close games or faced a challenging schedule.
Sport isn’t fair, so the outcome of games doesn’t always reflect how a team has performed. There are teams that have whole seasons where they are better than their record suggests; there’s equally a long history of teams enjoying positive regression after a disappointing first half of the season.
Clippers
They might be 11th in the Western Conference, but there are plenty of indicators that the Clippers are a playoff team.
Los Angeles is on a 10-2 run behind elite play from Kawhi Leonard. Since Dec. 2, they are sixth in net rating. On the season, only two teams have a better adjusted shot quality.
Just five teams are taking a higher percentage of their shots at the rim or from three-point land. These Clippers are quietly doing a lot of things right over the last six weeks after an abysmal start to the year.
They’re not a title contender, and they are likely going to have to make their way through the Play-In tournament, but they are much better than a 16-23 record suggests.
76ers
Philly is on pace for 47 wins. It might seem ambitious to say this team is markedly better than that projected record, but they are fifth in net rating since the start of December. Only one double-digit loss has been suffered during that period.
Joel Embiid is looking a lot closer to the MVP Embiid than could have been reasonably expected after his injury issues. Tyrese Maxey is in the mix for First Team All-NBA. VJ Edgecombe is already helping the team win games, plus Paul George appears to have accepted his role as a third or fourth option.
Not only are the Sixers potentially far better than a 47-win team, they are also in legitimate contention for a top two seed in the Eastern Conference. Nick Nurse’s team are two games behind the Knicks in the loss column.
Nurse is a candidate for Coach of the Year, Maxey is an All-Star lock, and the City of Brotherly Love could finally get to enjoy a playoff run.
Hornets
A 7-8 run is a step in the right direction for the Hornets. Charlotte is seventh in net rating since the start of last season and has a shot quality record of 20-20. This group is more talented than their current 14-26 mark.
The Hornets are a top 12 team in shot quality at both ends of the floor. Per Cleaning The Glass, the gap between Charlotte’s win tally and their expected wins is the biggest in the NBA.
They have been unlucky with opponent three-point shooting, while preventing corner threes at an elite rate. Rim protection has been good, even with opponents getting to the cup too easily because of subpar perimeter defense.
Charlotte is six games off the final Play-In spot, but this season isn’t done for just yet.
Cavaliers
Sure, things aren’t exactly perfect in Cleveland. It feels like a slightly disgruntled locker room, and the weight of expectations seems to be dragging down a team that held so much promise a couple of years ago.
Still, these Cavaliers are better than winning 53% of their games. The sheer talent on this roster should have them north of 50 regular-season wins and there’s no way they should be anywhere near the jeopardy of the Play-In tournament.
Max Strus has been a miss. Cleveland has spent years trying to find the ideal fifth man in their starting lineup. Strus’ absence alone doesn’t excuse the Cavs being only at 22-19 at this stage of the season, though, so it promises to be a pivotal few weeks.
Cleveland, as it stands, has to be seen as a candidate to make a big trade at the deadline. What that is, however, is far less clear.
Pelicans
Look, we’re not claiming the Pelicans are good. We are simply saying they are better than a 9-32 team.
Shot quality agrees, projecting the Pels to have won 13 games so far. They are 26th in net rating yet have the worst record in the NBA.
Herb Jones has only played 23 games, Zion Williamson is at 25 games, and Yves Missi is ninth on the team in minutes. There’s a world where this Pelicans roster is fighting for the bottom half of the Play-In if only they could keep their core pieces healthy.
New Orleans could look to flip Jones and Trey Murphy III. The pick being sent to the Hawks is a sunk cost. Alternatively, they might try and lessen the damage by pushing hard in the second half. It’s not that far-fetched that they win 30 games.
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