Baseball is now in conference tournament mode, and that makes this weekend the last opportunity to state its case for any team near the bubble. As with basketball, every game now is magnified.
That means the intensity will be high, and risks that weren’t needed in the regular season will now be taken. Every bubble team has to manage its pitchers as if it’s their last game, because there’s a good chance that it will be.
Here’s a look at each multi-bid conference and who needs a big weekend to keep its season alive.
ACC
The group with the most to lose at the ACC tournament in Charlotte probably already lost it. North Carolina State arrived needing to win at least once, probably twice to feel good about making the big bracket. Instead, the Wolfpack lost 21-12 to 16th seeded Duke. While NC State clearly wasn’t the same after first baseman Chris McHugh took a pitch to the head, that’s no excuse for its pitchers giving up 15 runs to the Blue Devils over the final three innings. Losing that game likely ends NC State’s season.
Conversely, Virginia Tech has probably done enough. The Hokies avoided the trap of Notre Dame, beating the Fighting Irish 15-10 to reach the quarterfinals. They’re now playing to set up their rotation for the regionals. The biggest wild card is Pittsburgh, which is still alive after beating Wake Forest just before 2 a.m. on Thursday. The Panthers get a badly-needed day off before facing Florida State, which swept them in Tallahassee.
Pitt’s high RPI but poor ACC record make it an interesting case. The Panthers certainly drew the short straw in ACC scheduling; they didn’t see any of the four weakest foes in the conference, went 1-8 against Georgia Tech, North Carolina and Florida State and played six of the league’s eight sure tournament teams. The Panthers would be well-advised to just try to win three more games.
Big Ten
Michigan and Purdue have made their lives exponentially harder, and they did it against the two weakest squads to make the 12-team Big Ten tournament. The Big Ten uses a two-tiered format: the top four automatically reach the second stage of the league tournament, while teams 5 through 12 play a double elimination section to fill out the remaining four spots in stage two.
That should have been an advantage for both the Boilermakers and Wolverines. Purdue opened with 12th seed Michigan State, while Michigan faced No. 10 Rutgers. The Wolverines run-ruled the Scarlet Knights, seemingly setting themselves up for a glide path when rival Ohio State lost to Washington. But then the Wolverines couldn’t handle the Huskies either, falling 7-1 and setting up a Thursday showdown with the Buckeyes to stay in the tournament. Purdue dropped its game to the Spartans, forcing them to beat Illinois to stay alive. Now the Boilers get a Thursday elimination game with Iowa, which swept Purdue to end the regular season, to get into the single-elimination section.
The bad news doesn’t stop there, especially for Purdue. The Big Ten seeds the single-elimination portion based on how teams fared in the double-elimination section, meaning Michigan State gets to see fourth-seed USC in the quarterfinals and Washington meets third-seed Oregon. Michigan would line up to play Nebraska, and Purdue would face consensus No. 1 in the nation UCLA. Plus, both the Bruins and the Huskers would be free to throw whatever pitcher they want, while the Boilermakers and the Wolverines have to burn another arm just to get to Friday.
Big 12
Arizona State needs to make this weekend count. The Sun Devils’ RPI isn’t where it should be, but they get a golden chance to improve that with Cincinnati. Both the Bearcats and West Virginia are just outside the line for hosting duties, which could change with a Big 12 tournament championship. Arizona State didn’t do its job out of conference, and must beat both to feel good about returning to the NCAA tournament.
Everyone else at the Big 12 tournament is either worried about seeding or winning the automatic bid. Arizona State is the only one of the top eight who’s not safely in the field.
SEC
Baseball’s strongest conference is essentially playing out the string. With Wednesday going fully chalk in Hoover, none of the eight teams still alive has any doubts about postseason play. Kentucky and Vanderbilt might have made a case with a run in the SEC tournament, but Kentucky was one-and-done against Vanderbilt, and the Commodores fell a game later.
The SEC is likely an 11-bid league, even with Mississippi and Oklahoma botching their conference tournament openers. That’s remarkable, even for this league.
Sun Belt
Texas State and Louisiana both got the results they needed in their first games. They now battle each other, and making the championship game would likely be enough to get one of them into the field. On the other side, South Alabama faces an unenviable task. Top seed Southern Mississippi used its advantage to choose when it played, and now gets a full day of rest before facing the Jaguars. South Alabama has to beat the Golden Eagles twice to make the title game, which might be needed to earn a bid.
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