Welcome to conference tournament week. It’s officially last-chance time for teams on the bubble, and that means one loss could be their last.
We’ve been breaking things down by conference and placing teams into four categories: safely in, right side of the bubble, wrong side of the bubble, and need a miracle. Now that the conference tournament fields are set, we’re adding a fifth category: out of the picture.
“Safely in” teams will make the field barring something crazy, while “need a miracle” teams would have to win their conference tournament to get there. Teams on the right side of the bubble would likely make the field today, while those on the wrong side are currently outside looking in. “Out of the picture” teams have already been eliminated from their conference tournament, or in the case of the ACC, missed it entirely and have no realistic path to a bid.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville
Right Side of the Bubble: NC State, Clemson, Miami
Wrong Side of the Bubble: SMU, California, Virginia Tech, Stanford
Need a Miracle: Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Florida State, Wake Forest
Out of the Picture: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame
NC State has drifted back to the bubble after losing six of its last seven games. Losses to Duke and Virginia were forgivable, but falling to Notre Dame was terrible and Stanford wasn’t much better. The Wolfpack probably need to beat Stanford or Pitt to feel safe.
California has the toughest situation among the ACC bubble teams. The Golden Bears not only open with red-hot Florida State, but they would then get Duke in the quarterfinals. Given that the Seminoles just demolished SMU in Tallahassee, Cal could see its hopes dashed without ever facing the Blue Devils.
Virginia Tech will have a chance to play its way in. The Hokies won’t have it easy, needing to beat Wake Forest, Clemson, and North Carolina, but that’s a manageable trio of decent-to-good wins. If the Hokies are still alive in the semifinals, they’ll have a real chance.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
Right Side of the Bubble: None
Wrong Side of the Bubble: None
Need a Miracle: Seton Hall, Creighton, Georgetown, Butler, DePaul, Providence, Marquette, Xavier
There’s little to say about the Big East. Seton Hall missed an opportunity at a Quad 1 win yet again, and the Pirates aren’t getting in without winning the league tournament. Nobody else is anywhere near the bubble.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA
Right Side of the Bubble: Iowa, Ohio State
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Indiana
Need a Miracle: Minnesota, Rutgers, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Northwestern, Washington, USC
UCLA is safe. As long as there aren’t a crazy number of bid thieves, the Bruins have done enough after sweeping USC.
Iowa and Ohio State are in position to play a de facto play-in game for a bid. As long as the Hawkeyes don’t lose to the Maryland/Oregon survivor, which would be disastrous for them, the winner of the 8/9 game should be heading to the NCAAs.
Indiana’s spiral continued, even after the Hoosiers blasted Minnesota at home. They followed that up by losing to Ohio State in Columbus, and now they probably need to beat Purdue and Nebraska to qualify. With seven straight losses, it’s time to say goodbye to USC’s at-large hopes.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
Right Side of the Bubble: None
Wrong Side of the Bubble: UCF, Cincinnati
Need a Miracle: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah, Oklahoma State, West Virginia
With its seventh win in eight games, including a key victory over fellow bubble team Cincinnati, TCU moves into the safe category. The Horned Frogs would need quite a bit to go wrong in Kansas City to miss the field at this point, even if they were to lose their first Big 12 tournament game.
UCF and Cincinnati, however, are in a much tougher spot. The Knights are the No. 8 seed and the Bearcats No. 9, which could set up a meeting between the two if Cincinnati gets past Utah. The loser of that game would almost certainly see its NCAA hopes end, while the winner would still have work to do. In all likelihood, that team would need to beat Arizona to secure a bid, something only Kansas and Texas Tech have managed this season.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia
Right Side of the Bubble: Texas A&M, Missouri
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Texas, Auburn
Need a Miracle: Mississippi, Mississippi State, LSU, Oklahoma, South Carolina
The SEC tournament bracket set up well for Missouri. As long as Kentucky handles LSU, the Tigers cannot take a damaging loss at this point. Missouri likely needs one more win to feel comfortable, and that opportunity could come against the Wildcats.
Texas A&M is also in solid shape. The Aggies do face some risk in their opener against South Carolina, but if they advance to meet Oklahoma, they would have a chance to add another quality win.
Texas probably needs two wins to feel safe, while Auburn’s position reflects the difficulty of its schedule. The selection committee will take that into account, but the Tigers still need results. That likely means beating Mississippi State and Tennessee.
Mid-Majors
Safely In: Gonzaga, Utah State, Saint Mary’s
Right Side of the Bubble: Saint Louis, Santa Clara, Miami (OH)
Wrong Side of the Bubble: New Mexico, South Florida, VCU, Boise State, Belmont, San Diego State
Saint Louis getting blown out at George Mason creates a troubling scenario for bubble teams: the possibility of a two-bid Atlantic 10. The Billikens are still more likely to make the field than not, but their semifinal would now come against either Dayton or a rematch with Mason. In either case, a potential bid thief would be waiting in the A-10 final. Saint Louis sits at No. 27 in the NET rankings, so it is difficult to see the Billikens missing the tournament unless they go one-and-done in Pittsburgh.
Santa Clara faces Saint Mary’s for the third time Monday. A win would remove almost all doubt about the Broncos’ chances. A loss, however, would make things far more complicated. Miami remains the most polarizing team in the country at 31-0, largely because the RedHawks still do not have a quality win.
The Mountain West trio of New Mexico, San Diego State, and Boise State all landed on the same side of the conference tournament bracket. The expectation is straightforward: one of those three will play its way into the NCAA tournament. If Colorado State does not make a Cinderella run, whichever team is still standing on Saturday will likely earn the bid, while the other two will be left out.
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