The biggest nightmare for bubble teams arrived on Thursday, though they narrowly avoided the second-biggest one.
Miami (Ohio), the last undefeated team in the nation, suffered its first loss in its opening game of the MAC tournament in Cleveland. The RedHawks finally ran out of luck and fell to Massachusetts, meaning their lone defeat now sits as a Quad 4 loss. The committee now faces an unusual decision: reward Miami for a remarkable 31-0 regular season, or penalize the RedHawks for playing only one game against a Top 100 opponent all year.
Meanwhile, Florida State nearly gave bubble teams even more reason to sweat. The Seminoles missed at the buzzer in a 80-79 loss to Duke in the ACC quarterfinals. Had Florida State won, it would have been just two victories away from stealing the ACC’s automatic bid, with its biggest hurdle already behind it. Instead, the ACC’s bid will now go to a team that was already likely headed to the NCAA tournament.
Teams listed as Safely In will make the field barring something unexpected. Teams on the Right Side of the Bubble would likely make the field if selections were made today. Teams on the Wrong Side of the Bubble are currently just outside the projected field, while those listed as Out of the Picture have already been eliminated from their conference tournament and no longer have a realistic path to an NCAA bid. And Bid Thieves are teams still alive in their conference tournament that would only reach the NCAA tournament by winning the automatic bid, potentially knocking out an at-large team.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami, Clemson
Right Side of the Bubble: NC State
Wrong Side of the Bubble: SMU, Stanford
Bid Thief: None
Out of the Picture: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, California, Virginia Tech
With Clemson advancing to the semifinals alongside Miami, both the Tigers and the Hurricanes are now safely in the field. Clemson nearly gave its bid away against North Carolina, but the Tigers held off the Tar Heels and will now arrive on Selection Sunday knowing they’ve done enough.
NC State could have used another win, but the Wolfpack still appear to be in good shape overall. They could face trouble if bid thieves emerge elsewhere, but for now, they should be fine.
SMU and Stanford are very thankful Florida State’s upset bid fell short. Had the Seminoles reached the semifinals against Clemson, a team they had already beaten, the bubble would have grown very nervous. As it stands, the Mustangs and Cardinal still need several things to break their way.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
Right Side of the Bubble: None
Wrong Side of the Bubble: None
Bid Thief: Seton Hall, Georgetown
Out of the Picture: Butler, DePaul, Marquette, Creighton, Providence, Xavier
After weeks of looking like a simple three-bid league, the Big East now has two legitimate bid thieves in play. Seton Hall was at least hovering near the bubble, but Georgetown finished in last place in the league and would need to win the tournament just to finish above .500.
Suffice it to say, bubble teams across the country will be rooting hard for a Big East final between St. John’s and Connecticut.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA, Ohio State
Right Side of the Bubble: Iowa
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Indiana
Bid Thief: None
Out of the Picture: Minnesota, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Washington, USC, Northwestern, Rutgers
Welcome to the tournament, Ohio State. The Buckeyes took care of business against Iowa and are now safely in the field. They’ve won four in a row and will now be playing to improve their seed.
Iowa should still qualify, even with a one-and-done in the conference tournament. Indiana, meanwhile, is likely on the outside looking in.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
Right Side of the Bubble: UCF
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Cincinnati
Bid Thief: None
Out of the Picture: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
UCF needed to beat Arizona to feel safe, and that never came close to happening. The Knights remain firmly on the bubble. UCF will probably still qualify, but it’s out of their hands now.
Cincinnati likely needed to start its push a little earlier. The Bearcats showed plenty of fight down the stretch, but it probably wasn’t enough.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia
Right Side of the Bubble: Texas A&M, Missouri, Oklahoma
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Texas, Auburn
Bid Thief: Mississippi
Out of the Picture: Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina
Oklahoma has done a masterful job of getting off the canvas and playing its way back into the conversation. The Sooners looked finished after falling to 13-14 with a home loss to Texas A&M. Six wins later, including a victory over the Aggies, Oklahoma might not even have to go to Dayton.
The Sooners now have their fourth Quad 1 win and another opportunity waiting against Arkansas. It’s increasingly likely Porter Moser will get Oklahoma back to the tournament and save his job.
Texas A&M and Missouri both missed chances to clinch, while Auburn threw away a big lead and fell to Tennessee. Auburn becomes a very interesting case with 16 losses. The Tigers played a brutal schedule, but at some point you still have to win games. Outside of beating Florida, Auburn hasn’t done that.
It’s too early to worry about Mississippi for now. If the Rebels beat Alabama, then they become a problem.
Mid-Majors
Automatic Bid: Gonzaga, McNeese State
Safely In: Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Right Side of the Bubble: Saint Louis, Miami (OH)
Wrong Side of the Bubble: New Mexico, South Florida, VCU, San Diego State
Out of the Picture: Boise State
Well…now what? That’s the question facing the committee now that Miami-Ohio will not win the MAC tournament. The RedHawks can no longer assume they’re safely in the field, especially with the possibility of bid thieves elsewhere.
If the MAC has indeed stolen a bid, the pressure now shifts to VCU, New Mexico, and San Diego State. The Lobos and the Aztecs meet in the Mountain West semifinals in what amounts to a de facto play-in game. If the winner faces Utah State in the final, the Mountain West will likely remain a two-bid league.
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