We’re now down to four days until Selection Sunday, which means it’s time for another daily look at the NCAA tournament bubble. It also means introducing a new category: bid thief.
A bid thief is a team still alive in its conference tournament that has no realistic path to the NCAA tournament without winning the automatic bid. All 31 conference tournament champions receive an automatic berth, and most projections assume those bids will be claimed by teams already safely in the field. When a true longshot wins a conference tournament, however, it steals a bid that would otherwise go to an at-large team.
That’s where things can get messy for bubble teams. Right now, 41 teams are either safely in or on the right side of the bubble. But if a couple of bid thieves emerge, teams that currently feel comfortable could suddenly find themselves on the outside looking in.
Teams listed as Safely In will make the field barring something unexpected. Teams on the Right Side of the Bubble would likely make the field if selections were made today. Teams on the Wrong Side of the Bubble are currently just outside the projected field, while those listed as Out of the Picture have already been eliminated from their conference tournament and no longer have a realistic path to an NCAA bid.
Here’s where things stand right now.
ACC
Safely In: Duke, Virginia, North Carolina, Louisville, Miami
Right Side of the Bubble: NC State, Clemson
Wrong Side of the Bubble: SMU, Stanford
Bid Thief: Florida State
Out of the Picture: Boston College, Georgia Tech, Notre Dame, Pittsburgh, Syracuse, Wake Forest, California, Virginia Tech
It’s time to declare Miami safe. With much of the bubble shooting itself in the foot, Miami has seen any potential bad losses taken off the table. A loss to Louisville wouldn’t damage the Hurricanes’ profile, and a win over the Cardinals would push their résumé firmly beyond reproach.
NC State and Clemson also appear to be in strong position. Each could probably use one more win to remove any lingering doubt, but it would take a lot at this point for either team to fall short.
If the ACC is going to land an eighth team in the field, SMU appears to be the most likely candidate. Stanford has a case, but four Quad 3 losses weigh heavily against the Cardinal’s résumé. Both teams will be rooting hard for Duke on Thursday, as will much of the rest of the bubble. If Florida State is still alive on Friday, however, bubble teams across the country will start to get very nervous about the possibility of the Seminoles stealing the ACC’s automatic bid.
Big East
Safely In: Connecticut, St. John’s, Villanova
Right Side of the Bubble: None
Wrong Side of the Bubble: None
Bid Thief: Seton Hall, Creighton, Georgetown, Providence, Xavier
Out of the Picture: Butler, DePaul, Marquette
At least one bid thief will be playing in the Big East semifinals, as Seton Hall and Creighton play each other. The Big East will be a three-bid league unless someone besides St. John’s, Connecticut or Villanova wins the tournament.
Big Ten
Safely In: Michigan, Nebraska, Illinois, Purdue, Michigan State, Wisconsin, UCLA
Right Side of the Bubble: Iowa, Ohio State
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Indiana
Bid Thief: Northwestern, Rutgers
Out of the Picture: Minnesota, Maryland, Oregon, Penn State, Washington, USC
The only reason Indiana is still on this page is because the bubble has collapsed elsewhere. The Hoosiers did themselves no favors against Northwestern, taking a double-digit loss in a game they badly needed. Indiana could still sneak into the field as a First Four team, but based on the résumé, the Hoosiers would be fortunate to get that opportunity.
Iowa and Ohio State are effectively playing for a bid in the 8/9 game. The winner should move safely into the field, while the loser is probably still in decent shape but will face a far more anxious wait on Selection Sunday.
Big 12
Safely In: Arizona, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Texas Tech, BYU, TCU
Right Side of the Bubble: UCF
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Cincinnati
Bid Thief: None
Out of the Picture: Baylor, Colorado, Arizona State, Kansas State, Utah, West Virginia, Oklahoma State
The collapsing bubble moves UCF into the field. The Knights don’t have a particularly strong résumé, but it compares favorably with several other teams still in the mix. With rivals around them stumbling, UCF has likely done enough for now. A win over Arizona would remove any remaining doubt.
Oklahoma State briefly looked like a potential bid thief, but the Cowboys couldn’t hold their lead and fell by seven to TCU. With that loss, the Big 12 will almost certainly be an eight-bid league, as Cincinnati likely hasn’t done enough to push the conference any higher.
SEC
Safely In: Arkansas, Alabama, Florida, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Kentucky, Georgia
Right Side of the Bubble: Texas A&M, Missouri
Wrong Side of the Bubble: Texas, Auburn, Oklahoma
Bid Thief: Mississippi
Out of the Picture: Mississippi State, LSU, South Carolina
With five straight wins, Oklahoma has played its way onto the bubble. The Sooners are one of the few teams in that position that hasn’t hurt itself lately, beating South Carolina to keep their hopes alive.
Texas was not as fortunate, falling to Mississippi. The Longhorns now need a lot to go their way, relying on further bubble chaos and hoping their Quad 1 wins outweigh several damaging losses.
Texas A&M and Missouri both appear to be in good shape, though one more win would remove any lingering doubt.
Mid-Majors
Automatic Bid: Gonzaga, McNeese State
Safely In: Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Santa Clara
Right Side of the Bubble: Saint Louis, Miami (OH)
Wrong Side of the Bubble: New Mexico, South Florida, VCU, San Diego State
Out of the Picture: Boise State
Santa Clara moves to Safely In after losing the West Coast Conference championship game to Gonzaga. The Broncos picked up a second win over Saint Mary’s and now clearly have one of the 37 best résumés in the country. With the bubble collapsing around them, Santa Clara’s position looks secure.
Boise State falls off the bubble entirely after losing to a nine-win San Jose State team. A loss to New Mexico or San Diego State would have been understandable; falling to the Spartans was not even on the radar. There’s no path left for the Broncos, and the Mountain West is now down to two potential at-large teams besides Utah State.
VCU, Miami, and South Florida are all rightfully nervous at this point. The Bulls are in the best position in terms of their conference tournament path, needing only two wins to claim the automatic bid. The Rams and RedHawks both need three.
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