Week 18 represents the culmination of a full NFL season filled with storylines, winning streaks, and shattered playoff hopes. Contenders are focused on postseason positioning as tiebreakers and schedules are sorted out. But once the regular season ends, a far less enjoyable annual tradition begins: Black Monday.
Black Monday is the league’s unofficial head coach firing day. Coaches are dismissed for underperforming, failing to establish a culture, or simply becoming the easiest scapegoat. This year, several head coaches appear to be firmly on the hot seat. Below are the most commonly mentioned candidates and how likely they are to be let go.
All but a Certainty
Pete Carroll, Las Vegas Raiders
The Raiders entered 2025 believing they were a quarterback and a head coach away from contention. With Tom Brady stepping in as a minority owner and operations advisor, the franchise leaned heavily on Seattle familiarity, bringing in Geno Smith and hiring Pete Carroll.
The results have been disastrous. Las Vegas heads into Week 18 with the worst record in the league. Carroll, a borderline Hall of Fame coach, brought his most frustrating tendencies with him, refusing to play rookies even as the season unraveled and continuing to rely on underperforming veterans. His press conferences have grown increasingly tense, marked by clashes with reporters and a clear resistance to developing young talent.
Carroll stands out as the most likely coach to be fired on Black Monday.
UPDATE: This article was written yesterday, and news just broke that Carroll was indeed let go by the Raiders this morning
Kevin Stefanski, Cleveland Browns
Rumors around Cleveland’s preparation for a coaching search have been circulating openly. The Browns are rarely a model of stability, and Stefanski appears positioned to become the latest sacrificial figure in a long line of head coaches.
Several players, including star cornerback Denzel Ward, have publicly supported Stefanski. That support, however, does not seem to be slowing the front office. Reports have linked Cleveland to potential interest in Mike McDaniel should Miami move on. Fans are understandably frustrated, believing roster instability and the disastrous Deshaun Watson trade deserve far more blame than the coaching staff.
Still, it appears Stefanski may pay the price for front-office decisions.
UPDATE: This article was written yesterday, and news just broke that Stefanski was indeed let go by the Browns this morning
Likely, but Not 100%
Mike McDaniel, Miami Dolphins
Just two years ago, Miami was viewed as an ascending contender with an innovative offense under Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa. McDaniel was labeled the next Sean McVay, a young offensive mind with energy and vision.
Since then, nearly everything has unraveled. Tagovailoa’s concussion issues derailed the offense, Tyreek Hill tore his ACL amid visible frustration, and Miami failed to weather those losses. McDaniel’s own demeanor has shifted noticeably. His press conferences often reflect frustration and detachment, and with the Dolphins bringing in a new general manager, a reset feels possible.
If McDaniel is let go, he will not be unemployed long, but his tenure in Miami appears close to ending.
Shane Steichen, Indianapolis Colts
Midway through the season, Steichen seemed to have steadied his footing. The Colts led the AFC, Daniel Jones was enjoying a resurgence, and Steichen was credited for maximizing his roster.
That stability evaporated quickly. Injuries piled up, including losses to Daniel Jones, Charvarius Ward, and newly acquired Sauce Gardner. With Anthony Richardson sidelined long-term due to an eye injury, Steichen resorted to bringing Phillip Rivers out of retirement in a last-ditch effort to salvage the season.
That desperation speaks volumes. Following the passing of owner Jim Irsay, his daughter Carlie Irsay-Gordon assumed control. Many believe she may want to establish her tenure by selecting her own head coach. If so, the Colts’ collapse in the second half of the season likely seals Steichen’s fate.
Probably Not, but a Year Away
Jonathan Gannon, Arizona Cardinals
Gannon enters the off-season with a 15-36 record across three years in Arizona. In today’s NFL, that alone would normally put a coach in serious danger.
However, reports suggest ownership may grant Gannon one more year. Kyler Murray’s inconsistent commitment and ongoing injury concerns have bought Gannon some patience, at least for now. Nothing is guaranteed, but among coaches on this list, Gannon appears to have the strongest job security entering Black Monday.
Todd Bowles, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Despite missing the playoffs after a hot start, the prevailing belief is that Bowles may retain his job, partially due to the cost of a buyout. Still, recent developments complicate that narrative.
Tampa Bay’s strong start to the season gave way to a disastrous second half. The offense stalled, the defense collapsed, and the Panthers clawed their way back into the playoff picture. Bowles’ public comments have only added fuel, most notably when he criticized quarterback play in recent weeks.
He may not be wrong, but the way he handled it rubbed many the wrong way, and Bowles’ job security remains shaky.
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