Betting on NFL games is difficult because even clear top-tier teams still lose to perceived bottom teams with regularity. The Carolina Panthers, for example, finished the regular season 7-10 against the total if you bet the over, despite losing three of those games while contributing very little to the scoring. As the playoffs continue, it is worth examining how totals have played out so far.
Through the first ten playoff games, betting the over blindly would have produced a 5-5 record. That includes one particularly painful loss, when the total was set at 51.5 and the Bills and Jaguars combined for just 51 points. So which teams, if any, have consistently pushed games over the number?
Among teams that have played two playoff games, none have beaten the over twice. The Rams and Bears were the only Wild Card teams to hit the over in the opening round, but their Divisional Round matchup stayed under the posted total. The Seahawks and Broncos both went over in their first playoff games, but each earned a first-round bye and has played only once so far.
With three games remaining before a champion is crowned, let’s look ahead and project how the totals might play out in the conference championships.
The first matchup is Patriots at Broncos, where the total currently sits at 40.5. The under feels like the stronger play. Both teams feature elite defenses, and Denver will be starting Jarrett Stidham at quarterback. The Patriots should be able to limit Denver’s offensive production, and while New England may advance to the Super Bowl, the more important takeaway is that this game is unlikely to reach 41 total points.
The Seahawks and Rams matchup is more complicated. These teams have already played twice this season, and both games were instant classics. Each team won once by a slim margin. Seattle took the most recent meeting 38-37 on a game-winning two-point conversion in overtime, while Los Angeles won the first matchup after kicker Jason Myers missed a 61-yard field goal.
These are two evenly matched teams, but Seattle appears to have the edge. The Seahawks looked unstoppable in the Divisional Round, dismantling the 49ers and even scoring on the opening kickoff. Momentum matters in the playoffs, and that clearly favors Seattle. Still, a total of 47.5 feels high for two teams built around strong defenses, particularly Seattle’s, and postseason football often tilts toward defensive execution over offensive fireworks.
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