As difficult as the Denver Broncos’ situation is with Jarrett Stidham making his first start of the season in the AFC Championship Game, it’s not unprecedented. It’s also not encouraging.
History shows that quarterbacks making unexpected or first-time starts in the postseason usually face long odds. Winning in these situations isn’t impossible, but it’s rare, and the margin for error is razor thin. More often than not, these stories end with a stark reminder that elite quarterback play is a prerequisite for postseason success in the NFL.
Here’s a look at some notable examples of quarterbacks who were suddenly thrust into the postseason spotlight, and how it played out.
Frank Reich, Buffalo Bills
This is the dream scenario for the Broncos, even though it required an all-time roller coaster from Reich. The Bills fell behind 28–3 against the Houston Oilers in the first half of the 1992 Wild Card game, a deficit that ballooned to 35–3 after Reich opened the second half by throwing a pick-six.
What followed became simply known as The Comeback. Buffalo scored the next 35 points and eventually won 41–38 in overtime. Reich then led the Bills past Pittsburgh in the Divisional Round before starter Jim Kelly returned for the AFC Championship win over Miami.
Kelly was injured again in the Super Bowl, forcing Reich back into action against Dallas. That third act went poorly, as the Bills committed nine turnovers and lost 52-17. Still, Reich’s run remains the gold standard for what’s possible when everything breaks just right.
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team
Washington ultimately lost to Tampa Bay, but Heinicke was not the problem. Thrust into action against Tom Brady, Heinicke threw 44 passes and somehow also led Washington in rushing with 46 yards.
Without a running game to worry about, Brady controlled the game for the Buccaneers. Heinicke twice brought Washington within one score, but each time Brady answered. Tampa Bay won 31-23 and went on to win the Super Bowl, but Heinicke earned respect for holding his own under impossible circumstances.
Connor Cook, Oakland Raiders
Cook’s playoff start in 2016 was both his first career start and his last. The Raiders lost Derek Carr and Matt McGloin late in the season, forcing Cook into action against Houston in the Wild Card round.
The extra prep time didn’t help. Cook completed just 18 of 45 passes for 161 yards, and the Texans rolled to a 27-14 win. Cook never appeared in another NFL game, spending the following year as a third-stringer before quietly exiting the league.
Joe Webb, Minnesota Vikings
This start went so poorly that the Vikings converted Webb to wide receiver the following season. With Christian Ponder injured in the final regular-season game, Webb was handed the playoff start against Green Bay.
Minnesota managed an early score only after returning the opening kickoff deep into Packers territory and calling eight straight runs. The message was clear: the Vikings had no faith in their quarterback. Webb finished 11-for-30 for 180 yards, with over a quarter of that coming on one play. Green Bay sold out to stop Adrian Peterson and won 24-10.
Gary Danielson, Detroit Lions
Danielson’s lone playoff start was one he would rather forget. Filling in for an injured Eric Hipple, Danielson threw five interceptions in a narrow 24-23 loss to San Francisco.
Four of those picks came in the first half, two of which directly led to touchdowns. Detroit had won the division at 9-7, but the quarterback change proved too much to overcome, leaving Lions fans to wonder how far the team might have gone with Hipple healthy.
Roger Staubach, Dallas Cowboys
Staubach’s case is unique. He came off the bench to engineer a comeback win over San Francisco in the Divisional Round of the 1972 playoffs, raising expectations heading into the NFC Championship Game.
Washington, however, knew Staubach well and prepared accordingly. Dallas never found its footing, losing 26–3 as Washington controlled the game from start to finish. The loss ended Dallas’ bid for back-to-back titles, but it also served as a turning point. Staubach reclaimed the starting job full-time the following season and eventually led the Cowboys to two Super Bowl titles.
What It Means for Denver
In nearly every case, these situations have ended the same way: the margin for error was microscopic, and the team eventually ran out of answers. Past precedent isn’t destiny, but it has rarely been kind to quarterbacks making surprise playoff starts at this stage.
If the Broncos are going to buck that trend, they’ll need far more than competence from Stidham. It will require near perfection everywhere else, disciplined defense, mistake-free football, and a game script that never forces him to play hero. History suggests that’s a difficult formula to pull off.
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