The four play-in teams in the Western Conference are all but locked in. In the East, it’s far less settled, with the Toronto Raptors and Atlanta Hawks trying to avoid being pulled into the mix.
For the purposes of this ranking, we’re using the eight teams currently occupying the play-in spots as of March 31, focusing on which ones are most likely to push for, or pull off, a first-round upset.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
The Sixers are +5.2 per 100 possessions with Joel Embiid, Tyrese Maxey, and VJ Edgecombe on the floor, and Embiid looked close to his MVP level in a recent win over the Hornets.
Philadelphia probably won’t be healthy enough to make an extremely deep run, but its ceiling in a best-of-seven series is still significant.
If the Sixers land in the eighth seed, they have a legitimate shot at knocking off the Pistons in the first round. And if they climb to sixth and avoid the play-in altogether, they could create real problems for the Knicks.
2. Charlotte Hornets
Losses to the Celtics and Sixers have significantly damaged Charlotte’s chances of finishing in the top six. With less than two weeks remaining, the Hornets’ most realistic outcome is landing in seventh.
The eighth seed may actually be the most favorable spot in the Eastern Conference right now, given Cade Cunningham’s injury. Detroit presents a very beatable first-round opponent.
Charlotte is tied for the best net rating in the NBA, and the trio of Brandon Miller, LaMelo Ball, and Kon Knueppel is +16.7 this season. With at least two of them on the floor at all times, the Hornets would be a difficult out in a playoff series.
3. Los Angeles Clippers
Kawhi Leonard is going to receive MVP votes, and the Clippers have quietly turned their season around. Since a 6-21 start, they rank seventh in net rating with the third-best offense in the NBA.
Darius Garland has fit seamlessly into his new team, and it’s not out of the question that the Clippers climb to seventh and secure home-court advantage in the first play-in game.
This is a formidable group that would present a tough first-round matchup for either the Spurs or Thunder. An upset in the Western Conference remains less likely, however, unless Oklahoma City or San Antonio suffers a major late-season injury.
4. Miami Heat
Miami has won just two of its last seven games. It has been a middling team on both ends of the floor in 2026 and doesn’t look nearly as threatening as Philadelphia or Charlotte in a best-of-seven series.
Yes, the Heat would have enough to beat Detroit without Cunningham, but they would struggle to extend the series if he’s fully healthy. Their ceiling is clearly lower than that of the Sixers and Hornets.
5. Orlando Magic
Following a post-All-Star surge, the Magic have lost seven of their last eight. The slide included a calamitous loss to the Raptors over the weekend, leaving Orlando just one game ahead of the Hornets and Heat.
Since a 13-8 start, the Magic’s net rating is only marginally better than New Orleans’. They’ve been below average on both ends of the floor and still don’t have a timetable for the return of Anthony Black or Franz Wagner.
6. Phoenix Suns
Phoenix is set to hold onto a spot in the top half of the play-in, despite being decimated by injuries. The Suns have already exceeded preseason expectations.
This team has been a pleasant surprise under Jordan Ott, but it lacks the top-tier talent beyond Devin Booker to go toe-to-toe with the West’s elite. There’s a decent chance they don’t make it out of the play-in.
7. Golden State Warriors
With Steph Curry sidelined and Jimmy Butler out for the year, Golden State has slipped to 10th during a 9-17 stretch. This team isn’t going anywhere this season, and Curry may not return for the play-in tournament.
The Warriors aren’t winning a playoff series, but the possibility of Curry’s return keeps them from ranking last here.
8. Portland Trail Blazers
Similar to Phoenix, Portland has limited upside. A .500 season is a respectable outcome, but the Blazers rank 20th in net rating and lack the kind of shot creator who can take over a game like Curry, Booker, or Leonard.
This is a solid roster with a mix of veterans and young players. The record is encouraging, but Portland hasn’t gotten enough from Scoot Henderson, and injuries have again limited Shaedon Sharpe’s availability.
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