Welcome back to Crush & Fade. This weekly series takes a look at the current PGA Tour event, along with a brief recap of the previous tournament and the latest news in the world of golf.
We kicked off the year with a solid showing at the Sony Open. Hopefully you tagged along on Robert MacIntyre, Harry Hall, and Nick Taylor. My longshot winner Nico Echavarria was a disaster, and Hideki narrowly missed after a slow start to his week. My Fade pick, Russell Henley, finished 19th, which made it a bit of a tweener depending on how you played him. If you were on a Top20, you probably found some value. If you were chasing a win or Top5, not so much.
Sony Open Recap
Chris Gotterup put together a dominant weekend to secure the first Tour victory of the 2026 season. My buddy and I have him in a season-long fantasy draft league, so we were loving the returns from Oahu. We also roster Jacob Bridgeman and Robert MacIntyre, making it a very solid week overall.
On the Calcutta side, things were promising early but faded down the stretch. Ben Griffin struggled over the weekend, and Nick Taylor slipped on Sunday. That’s golf. You win some, you lose some.
American Express Preview
What a field we have in the desert this week. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler headlines a strong group teeing it up at the American Express.
This year marks the 50th anniversary of Johnny Miller’s successful title defense, the only repeat win in the 66-year history of this event. That begs the question, can Sepp Straka go back to back after shooting 25 under to win in 2025?
Played in Palm Springs across three courses, La Quinta, the Nicklaus Tournament Course, and the Pete Dye Stadium Course, this event is known for low scores and plenty of birdies. After three rounds, the low 65 and ties advance to Sunday at the Stadium Course. Weather does not look like much of a factor, which usually means the scoring gets silly.
Sandman’s Crush Card
It is hard to find a player with more sustained success at this event than Patrick Cantlay. He is 6 for 6 here since 2019 with four Top10 finishes. These courses rarely bite elite players unless weather intervenes, and that does not appear to be the case this week.
Patrick Cantlay +3000 to Win
Cantlay sits at +3000 to win, and I am not interested in playing Scheffler at +280. Nearly every winner here, outside of Jon Rahm in 2018 and 2023, has come from +3000 or longer. Lean into the value. Give me “No Hat” Pat.
Harry Hall +700 Top 5
Hall played well at Waialae last week and is the best putter on Tour. These greens are there for the taking.
Robert MacIntyre +235 to finish Top 10
Lefty Bob ran his streak of consecutive Top10 finishes to four. We do not mess with streaks.
Tom Hoge +260 to finish Top 20
Some guys thrive in Pro-Am formats. Hoge is one of them and has a great history here.
Sandman’s Fade List
Fades are trickier this week given the birdie-fest nature of the event, but there is one name I am circling.
My Fade this week is Ludvig Åberg (+2500 to win, +225 Top 10, +145 Top 20). He can be hot or cold, and this is his first time playing this event. While he has shown he can score low in debut appearances, I see him having a more middling week adjusting to three courses and the Pro-Am format.
Good luck this season, Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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