Welcome back to Crush & Fade. This weekly series takes a look at the current PGA Tour event, while also recapping the previous tournament and highlighting any news in the world of golf.
Cognizant Classic Recap
Last week I talked about needing a young star to emerge, and we absolutely got a finish for the ages at PGA National.
Nico Echavarria closed on a new house Friday and won his first PGA Tour event Sunday. Not a bad weekend for the Colombian. He had been knocking on the door a few times in 2025 and finally broke through.
On the flip side, one of my favorite players, Shane Lowry, melted down in the Bear Trap with back-to-back double bogeys to blow a three-shot lead. Lowry had never made back-to-back doubles in his PGA Tour career until Sunday. Golf is ruthless.
Puerto Rico Open
No full Crush & Fade card for the “Bad Bunny Classic” this week. Yes, I know that’s not the actual name.
The Puerto Rico Open at Grand Reserve in Rio Grande is a secondary field event with only a few recognizable names. Karl Vilips won last year at -26.
The betting favorite is Denmark’s Rasmus Hojgaard at +1100, followed by Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen at +1600. If I had to lean anywhere, I like Ricky Castillo at +1900. He’s in good form and offers slightly better value.
Now to the main event.
Arnold Palmer Invitational
I love this tournament, and Bay Hill is a true test.
This par 72 stretches to 7,466 yards and demands everything. One moment I’ll never forget is Bryson DeChambeau taking on the par-5 sixth with a 370+ yard carry over water. The entire spray chart showed the field curving it safely around the lake. Bryson went straight over it and celebrated like he had just won the long drive contest. Unreal.
Russell Henley won last year at -11, and I would expect a similar winning score again. This place does not hand out birdies.
It’s a Signature Event with a cut, so we get the best players in the world grinding.
Scottie Scheffler sits at +350. Rory McIlroy at +1000. Tommy Fleetwood at +2000. As usual, Scottie is priced into oblivion, so I’m either throwing him out or looking at alternative markets.
Sandman’s Crush Card
Tommy Fleetwood +2000 to WIN
Two starts, two Top 10s in 2026. He has played Bay Hill well historically and you’re getting strong value at 20-1 in this field.
Jacob Bridgeman +850 to finish Top 5
This kid continues to ascend in 2026. At this number, recent form alone makes it worth a shot.
Jake Knapp +270 to finish Top 10
Knapp absolutely flushes it. The power is real, but the tempo is what stands out. There’s a Freddie Couples vibe there. Smooth, confident, and fearless.
Joel Dahmen +280 to finish Top 20
The University of Washington alum has quietly played his way into this field and into THE PLAYERS next week. In a loaded field, I’m hunting value for Top 20, and Dahmen’s current form plus experience makes him a solid candidate.
Sandman’s Fade List
This week, I’m fading Si Woo Kim (+3000 to Win, +200 Top 10, -155 Top 20).
I love his aggressiveness, but Bay Hill is not a place where reckless pays off. His recent finishes here: 19th, 30th, 39th, 26th, plus four missed cuts or withdrawals before that stretch. Even with solid 2026 form, I don’t love the fit this week.
Good luck this week Sandman Nation, and may all your bets land squarely on the green.
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