Texas coach Steve Sarkisian should have seen this coming.
Sarkisian started a firestorm when he called out Texas Tech's schedule, claiming that the Longhorns' twos and threes could go undefeated against the Red Raiders' slate. Texas Tech coach Joey McGuire and booster Cody Campbell had a simple response: prove it on the field.
With both teams pitted against lower-level foes in Week 1, canceling those games and playing each other wouldn't take much more than money. Campbell has plenty of it, which led to him offering to cover the buyouts for both Abilene Christian and Texas State. The cost would probably land between $2 million and $3 million, pocket change for Campbell.
The Red Raiders even offered to play at a neutral site, likely the Cowboys' stadium in Arlington. That's about two hours closer to Austin than Lubbock, and the crowd would probably skew more burnt orange than red and black.
So far, Texas hasn't budged. The Longhorns announced a kickoff time with Texas State for Sept. 5, which suggests they aren't planning to accept. But should they?
Only Texas Has a Lot to Lose
Realistically, the Longhorns could make a run to the College Football Playoff and possibly win the SEC. They don't play Georgia or Alabama this year, and the roster is strong. They also enter with a built-in scheduling advantage. One early loss, especially to Texas Tech, could derail their playoff hopes before SEC play even begins.
Texas Tech will hate hearing this, but the SEC is a deeper conference than the Big 12. That was proven in the CFP, when the Red Raiders were exposed against Oregon. The Ducks rolled to a 23-0 win, and it wasn't that close.
Texas Tech would love this game because it needs the competition. While teams can build momentum against weaker opponents, that approach failed the Red Raiders last season. With nobody else in the Big 12 stepping up, they won't get the tests they need to reach their ceiling elsewhere on the docket.
Texas will get those tests regardless. The Longhorns travel to Tennessee and Missouri, play Oklahoma in Dallas and host Ohio State, which brings up the most important reason to pass on this challenge.
Texas Can't Afford an 0-2 Start
Texas hosts Ohio State in Week 2. The Buckeyes are two years removed from a national title, and their only losses last year came against champion Indiana and runner-up Miami. Winning that game would be significant. Losing it is manageable, as long as it stands alone.
Texas State simply isn't capable of beating Texas. Texas Tech is, and Sarkisian knows it. Taking this challenge risks walking into the Ohio State game already in a hole.
Texas Tech's biggest non-conference test is Oregon State, a program that has fallen sharply since the Pac-12 collapsed. The Beavers lost 45-14 in Lubbock last year. For the Red Raiders, there's almost no downside to pushing for a Texas matchup. For the Longhorns, accepting it could cost them the Buckeyes game before the season really starts.
Texas' Offense Needs To Build Confidence
Arch Manning had several bad games last year. He threw for fewer than 200 yards five times, including a rough showing against Kentucky where Texas managed just 179 yards of total offense. At best he was inconsistent, showing flashes of real talent while still looking distanced from a championship-level quarterback.
Facing Texas Tech and Ohio State in back-to-back weeks could do serious damage to his development if things go sideways. The Longhorns need to get the offense moving, and their current schedule is built to allow exactly that. Scrapping it now would undermine a plan the program has been building toward all offseason.
That's not a shot at Texas. In college football, teams plan with the full season in mind. The Longhorns want to be playing their best football by the time the SEC slate hits. If Manning had shown consistency last year, the calculus might be different. Right now, Texas needs the runway its current opponents provide.
What Should Texas Do?
The smartest move is a counter. Playing Texas Tech in Arlington, Lubbock or Austin would be good for both programs, just not in 2026. Texas has Michigan next year and a two-year home-and-home with Notre Dame after that, but only one game on the books for 2030 and 2031.
A home-and-home with the Red Raiders in those years, or a neutral-site game in Arlington, gives both programs something to look forward to and takes the pressure off the current situation. It's a practical answer to a loud challenge.
Texas can't afford to add this game right now, and that's ultimately a credit to Texas Tech. There wouldn't be a controversy if the Red Raiders weren't capable of winning it. The Longhorns want to be in the playoff conversation come December, and right now, adding Texas Tech is one of the last things their schedule needs.
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