As the NHL nears the Olympic break, it’s a great time to take a hard look at the teams in the mix for the Stanley Cup playoffs and see who really has a shot at lifting the Cup this spring.
The line between contender and pretender is often thin and usually comes down to just a few factors. Ideally, a contender will have strong faceoff play, excellent goaltending, a good power play, and an ability to score most of its goals at 5-on-5.
If you’re lacking one of those things, you can probably still survive, unless it’s goaltending. Two or more, and that team is probably only pretending to be a real contender for the Cup.
Here’s a look at some top teams and their real situations.
Colorado Avalanche (+230)
Contender
The Avs have most of the ingredients needed to dominate. The one exception is the easiest one to get away with: Colorado’s power play is not great. In order for that not to matter, a team needs to be able to consistently score goals at 5-on-5. The Avalanche do that, leading the league in goals despite a power play that ranks 28th.
When you have the likes of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar on the ice, you’re going to score in enough 5-on-5 situations to win most nights. Colorado also generates a large volume of shots, and the Avalanche’s skill means most of those are quality chances. The Avs also lead the league in fewest goals allowed, which is why this team is so feared. Outside of the power play, Colorado doesn’t have a glaring weakness.
Tampa Bay Lightning (+575)
Contender
This should be more straightforward than it is, given how Tampa Bay brings an excellent penalty kill and strong goaltending to the table. But the Lightning’s lack of success in the faceoff circle is troubling, as is the number of shots they generate.
So far, Tampa Bay has been skilled enough for it not to matter. The Lightning are loaded with quality scorers who don’t need more than a couple looks a night to cash in. But against the wrong matchup, Tampa Bay could find itself in trouble. The Lightning are a contender overall, but one to be careful with.
Carolina Hurricanes (+800)
Contender
The Hurricanes are exactly the type of team the Lightning should be worried about. They allow the fewest shots in the NHL, they’re solid enough on the power play, and they score in bunches. Carolina controls the flow of action so well. It ranks second in shots on goal and consistently gives itself a chance to win every night.
The big concern for the Hurricanes is an intangible: can they get through the mental block of the conference finals? Carolina has reached three conference finals in seven years and is 1-12 in those series. The Hurricanes have the Metropolitan Division figured out, but the Atlantic remains a mystery. Carolina is going to have to beat someone from that division to make the Stanley Cup Finals.
Vegas Golden Knights (+850)
Pretender
The Golden Knights rank second to Carolina in shots allowed, but they rank 16th in goals allowed, which spells out this team’s biggest weakness. The goaltending is not where it needs to be. That cannot be true about your team if you hope to win the Cup.
Your goaltending is going to have to stand up somewhere on the road to the Cup and win you a series. Vegas still has time to make a deal to upgrade over Adin Hill and Carter Hart. If the Golden Knights do, they’ll be in a much stronger position. For now, this is a team to avoid backing in May.
Edmonton Oilers (+850)
Pretender
The same thing holds true yet again for the Oilers: the goaltending and defense are not where they need to be to win. Edmonton sits 21st in goals allowed, and the Oilers depend almost entirely on their high-powered offense.
To be fair, any offense run by Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl can win a lot of games. But the Oilers have been doing that for years now. Things always go wrong in the playoffs, and it’s because Edmonton always has to be on the attack. If the Oilers fix the defense, they have all the other pieces. But they must fix it to avoid wasting the prime years of McDavid and Draisaitl.
Dallas Stars (+1700)
Contender
The Stars don’t generate a ton of shots, but they don’t need to. Dallas plays excellent defense, wins most of its faceoffs, and generally controls the puck well enough to be selective with its opportunities.
Dallas is the type of team that can win a grinder of a game or a skill contest that opens up in front of it. The one knock is that they may be too dependent on the power play. Dallas converts almost 30 percent with the extra man, and that number is going to drop against better playoff defenses. But when a team ranks 12th in goals and 30th in shots, it’s still generating enough offense to win.
Minnesota Wild (+1700)
Pretender
The penalty kill and faceoff issues are too much to overlook. You can get away with a subpar power play in the postseason if you can score enough to compensate. A subpar penalty kill will ruin your chances.
The Wild only rank ahead of Buffalo in the faceoff circle, which is a recipe for disaster. When the other team constantly controls the puck, it can force the issue and put the defense under pressure. That leads to desperation and minor penalties. Against a strong power play, Minnesota won’t survive a seven-game series.
Florida Panthers (+1200)
Pretender
Who was the last team to win three straight Stanley Cups? The Islanders, who did it from 1980 to 1983. It is incredibly hard to win three in a row, and the grind eventually catches up.
The truth is, this Florida team is flawed. The expectation is that Sergei Bobrovsky will return to playoff form, but Florida has to make it there first. There is no guarantee the Panthers even survive the Atlantic. The faceoff numbers aren’t good, the Panthers don’t score enough, and the goals simply haven’t been coming. The only reason these odds are this short is recency bias from winning two straight Cups.
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