Texas and NC State already met once, back at the Maui Invitational in November. The Longhorns won that game 102-97 to finish fifth in Maui, but the way it played out actually favors NC State in the rematch.
Texas took 32 three-point attempts and made 16 of them. That is not who the Longhorns are. They do not typically shoot that many threes, nor are they one of the better three-point shooting teams in the country.
NC State, on the other hand, checks both boxes. The Wolfpack led the ACC in three-point percentage and ranked fourth nationally in adjusted three-point percentage. Texas struggled to defend the perimeter in the first meeting, and if NC State had taken more than 19 threes, there is a strong case it wins that game.
Both teams have changed since November, and not necessarily for the better. Each limped into the tournament, losing five of its last six games. NC State likely would have missed the field without an ACC tournament win, while Texas dropped its first SEC tournament game to Mississippi.
Here’s a look at the matchup.
When Texas Has the Ball
Texas prefers to work the ball into the paint, either finishing at the rim or drawing fouls. That may not be as effective here. NC State does not foul often, and its primary defensive weakness is on the perimeter.
That showed up in the first meeting, when Texas consistently worked the ball out to the arc and shot freely. Jordan Pope led the way, going 7-for-13 from three.
If NC State focuses on taking Pope away this time, Dailyn Swain becomes the key. Swain was one of the few bright spots for Texas in the SEC tournament, scoring 22 of the team’s 66 points against Mississippi. He can hit from three, but is more comfortable in the mid-range and around the basket, and he is reliable at the line.
Turnovers are also a concern. Texas committed just seven in the first matchup, well below its season average of 11 per game. NC State ranked second in the ACC in forcing turnovers, and that pressure could be a factor here. Texas can struggle to generate clean looks, while the Wolfpack excel at disrupting rhythm and limiting quality shots.
Unless the Longhorns get hot from deep again, this matchup starts to tilt toward NC State’s strengths.
When NC State Has the Ball
NC State needs to be more aggressive from deep this time. Outside of Paul McNeil Jr., the Wolfpack did not take enough perimeter shots in the first meeting, and it cost them.
McNeil Jr., Darion Williams, and Tre Holloman all shoot better than 40% from behind the arc. Just as important, this is a rebounding matchup NC State can win. That did not show up in the first game because Texas shot so well, but over the course of the season, the Wolfpack have been the stronger team on the glass.
In the first meeting, Ven-Allen Lubin went for 23 points and nine rebounds, including six on the offensive end. When NC State misses, it has the ability to extend possessions and generate second chances.
Texas also struggles to defend the three. The Longhorns are not as poor as NC State in that area, but they still allow quality looks from deep. They are also more likely to send opponents to the free throw line, which could be a problem here. NC State is capable of getting to the stripe and can turn that into a consistent source of points.
X-Factor
These are not deep teams. NC State typically relies on six players for more than 20 minutes, while Texas usually rotates seven. If either team plans to still be playing this weekend, managing energy on Tuesday becomes important.
That could lead to slightly deeper rotations than usual, particularly for Texas. The Longhorns’ aggressive style can work against them in the form of foul trouble, which may force Sean Miller to lean further into his bench.
Best Bets
With the total sitting at 158.5 across FanDuel, BetMGM, and Caesars, the expectation is clearly for a high-scoring game. That number is slightly lower than what the matchup suggests, which still leaves value on the over. Both teams have enough shooting to push this into the 80s if things open up.
Over remains the play.
NC State +1.5 is also available at several books and makes sense here. Texas won the first meeting, but it took a 50% performance from three to get there. That is unlikely to repeat. If the Longhorns shoot closer to their average, the edge shifts to the Wolfpack.
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