Now that we know the 68 teams competing for the men’s basketball national championship, it’s time to take a look at the overall bracket. More specifically, which teams caught a break from the selection committee, and which ones face a much tougher road.
That doesn’t necessarily mean the committee got something wrong, unless explicitly stated. In most cases, it simply means a team either caught a favorable draw or ended up in a more difficult situation than expected.
Here’s a look at the breakdown.
Winners
Purdue
The Boilermakers looked like they might be in trouble a month ago. Purdue went 2-4 over its final six home games, including losses to Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State and Wisconsin. But the Boilers put it all together in Chicago at the Big Ten tournament and earned a No. 2 seed for their efforts.
Purdue landed in Arizona’s region, and its slow pace combined with a wealth of experience is exactly the kind of formula that can give the Wildcats trouble. As long as Fletcher Loyer is making shots, the Boilers have a real chance to make another deep run with this draw.
UCLA
With Connecticut suddenly looking shaky, the Bruins may have a chance to make a serious run. The first-round matchup with Central Florida is very manageable; the Knights have struggled defending the three-point line, which is a dangerous weakness against UCLA’s shooters. If UConn continues its recent swoon, the Bruins could absolutely advance in the second round, and they just beat the East’s No. 3 seed, Michigan State, at the Big Ten tournament.
The one concern for UCLA is travel. The Bruins would play their first two rounds in Philadelphia before potentially moving to Washington for the regional. However, given that they already make regular trips to the East Coast to play at Maryland and Rutgers, that adjustment shouldn’t be a major issue.
Houston
This is a major lapse in judgment by the committee. Houston should not be allowed to play in Houston if it is not a No. 1 seed. That creates a clear disadvantage for Florida, the No. 1 seed in the South, which could be forced to play a regional final just two miles from the No. 2 seed’s campus. If the committee chose not to award Houston a No. 1 seed, it also should not have placed the Cougars in the South Region.
Instead, the committee should have sent Iowa State to the South and moved Houston to the Midwest. The Cyclones are certainly glad that didn’t happen, as Chicago is a much easier trip for Iowa State fans than Houston. But the committee’s job is to protect its highest seeds. Florida received no such protection here, and Houston is a major beneficiary at the Gators’ expense.
West Coast Conference
Santa Clara earned its No. 10 seed, but the committee easily could have placed the Broncos in the First Four after VCU and Akron stole bids. Santa Clara had a lower NET ranking than both SMU and NC State, yet still landed a full seed line higher than the First Four teams.
Saint Mary’s also received plenty of respect from the committee, earning a No. 7 seed. The WCC has now placed three teams in the field twice in the past five years, and it has earned that recognition. Even with Gonzaga departing to help reform the Pac-12, the WCC should remain a respected and competitive mid-major conference.
Losers
Duke
For the No. 1 overall seed, the Blue Devils did not receive a draw befitting their work. Greenville has not been a lucky place for Duke; the Blue Devils were upset here in 2017 and nearly suffered the same fate in 2002. Only in 2022 did Duke manage a run out of Greenville, eventually falling in the Final Four.
But 2017 offers the clearest parallel. That year, the committee placed South Carolina in Duke’s pod, effectively turning Greenville into a home game for the lower-seeded Gamecocks, who went on to eliminate Duke on their way to the Final Four. This time, North Carolina sits in the other pod, and historically when the Tar Heels and Blue Devils share the same location, the environment often becomes a virtual road game for Duke in the second round.
With Patrick Ngongba II injured, Ohio State might not even need the extra help, but it will likely get it anyway. The Buckeyes are playing very well right now and will not be intimidated after pushing Michigan to the wire. Duke could have a difficult road ahead just to reach Washington.
Illinois
In its infinite wisdom, the committee dropped the Illini into Greenville along with the Tar Heels. While Duke could face a virtual road game in round two with North Carolina fans likely backing Ohio State or TCU, Illinois may be on track for the same problem, only this time with the Tar Heels supporting their own team.
The committee really should stop doing this. If a team is not among the top 16 seeds, it should not receive anything resembling a home-court advantage. To make matters worse, Illinois was placed in the South Regional rather than the Midwest. If Houston is allowed to play in its own city, Illinois should at least be able to play in Chicago.
St. John’s
The Red Storm won both the Big East regular-season and tournament titles, yet they received only a No. 5 seed. To make matters worse, they would likely have to play in Philadelphia against Duke in the Sweet Sixteen if they advance that far.
St. John’s certainly benefits when it plays at home, but that advantage does not necessarily extend to the rest of the Northeast. While the committee clearly wanted to keep the Big East’s best teams on the East Coast, it is questionable logic to send the Red Storm to a site where Duke also enjoys a massive regional following. If that matchup materializes, St. John’s could find itself in a difficult spot.
Miami-Ohio
While the RedHawks can be glad they made the field, they are barely in and now face an SMU squad that challenged itself throughout the season. The Mustangs will be looking to prove a point after nearly being left out, and Miami does not defend the three-point line well enough to comfortably slow them down.
What Miami needed was a matchup with a power-conference opponent that might overlook them, not a team likely to be fully locked in. There is a very real chance the RedHawks get exposed here.
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