Every era of college football produces new powers while others quietly fade into the background. In the 1940s, Army was winning national championships. Miami (FL), meanwhile, was irrelevant and wouldn’t win its first national title until 1983, sparking five in the next eighteen years. Fortunes change in this sport, and history offers no protection.
The most recent cautionary tale is Nebraska. Once a fixture in the biggest bowl games and national title conversations, the Cornhuskers have spent more than two decades trying and failing to recapture relevance. Matt Rhule has stabilized the program enough to reach bowl games again, but the gap between where Nebraska is and where it once lived remains massive.
Nebraska didn’t fall apart overnight. It drifted. Coaching hires missed. Structural advantages eroded. The sport changed, and Nebraska didn’t keep pace. Eventually, a blueblood became a punchline.
These programs are in real danger of following that same path. Whether it’s resistance to the NIL era, poor roster management, conference realignment, or repeated coaching misfires, the trend lines are pointing the wrong way.
Clemson
It has not been a good stretch for Clemson. Over the past three seasons, the Tigers are just 16-9 in ACC play and just finished their worst year since 2010. If not for a soft conference schedule, it could have been uglier. Clemson beat only one team with a winning record in Louisville, while Florida State, Boston College, and North Carolina combined to go 5-19 in ACC play.
Dabo Swinney’s refusal to engage the transfer portal for years has finally caught up with the program. He has started using it, but he’s behind the curve, and in modern college football, being late matters. Clemson can still recruit and still win, but the margin is shrinking. If the Tigers don’t modernize quickly, their grip on national relevance could slip faster than anyone in Death Valley wants to admit.
Oklahoma State
The collapse in Stillwater has been staggering. Oklahoma State has been a disaster across the board, and the results are no longer defensible. The Cowboys are 0-18 in their past two Big 12 campaigns, and they have not beaten an FBS opponent of any substance since the fall of 2024.
Mike Gundy struggled mightily in the NIL era, ultimately costing him his job, and with T. Boone Pickens no longer around, Oklahoma State simply does not have the financial backstop it once relied on. That’s a major problem in a league that increasingly requires aggressive investment. The Big 12 offers winnable games, but Oklahoma State hasn’t been competitive against anyone. This is what falling behind looks like in real time.
USC
Lincoln Riley hasn’t failed at USC, but he hasn’t delivered anything close to what was promised either. Under Pete Carroll, USC won five conference titles in a decade. Riley hasn’t approached that standard.
The Trojans have lost at least four games in three of Riley’s four seasons, and the contrast with his Oklahoma tenure is glaring. He never lost more than two games in a season in Norman. At USC, four or five losses have become routine. The move to the Big Ten has only complicated matters, and USC now finds itself looking up at Oregon and Washington in terms of recent success.
USC still recruits well and still matters, but the gap between perception and performance is widening. That’s how programs start sliding without realizing it.
Florida
On paper, the Florida job should be one of the easiest in the country. It’s the flagship university in one of the deepest talent pools in America. And yet, the Gators haven’t finished a season ranked in the top 25 since 2020.
Jon Sumrall checks all the boxes, but so did Billy Napier. And Dan Mullen. And Will Muschamp. Since Steve Spurrier left for the NFL, only Urban Meyer has lasted more than four years in Gainesville. Coaching churn has become the norm, not the exception.
If Sumrall doesn’t work, Florida risks becoming exactly what Nebraska became. A proud brand trapped in a cycle of hope, disappointment, and reset, all while wondering how it ever got here.
Alabama
This one feels impossible to imagine, which is exactly why it belongs here.
Alabama has lived through down periods before. Mike DuBose and Mike Shula proved that even elite brands can fall without the right leadership. Nick Saban erased that memory and built the greatest dynasty the sport has ever seen.
Now he’s gone. Kalen DeBoer doesn’t appear headed for disaster, but he also doesn’t have Saban’s credibility or his ability to convince players to take less money for more rings. Alabama can no longer rely on its name alone. In the NIL era, spending matters, and spending aggressively matters even more.
If Alabama ever decides it doesn’t need to keep up financially, the slide could start faster than anyone in Tuscaloosa expects.
Wisconsin
Paul Chryst wasn’t flashy, but he was effective. In five seasons, he led Wisconsin to three New Year’s Six bowl games, never lost more than five games in a year, and won at least nine games in five of six full seasons.
Then Wisconsin panicked. A 2-3 start in 2022 was enough to end Chryst’s tenure, and the move has not paid off. Luke Fickell hasn’t found traction yet, and the Big Ten has changed dramatically around the Badgers. Oregon has arrived. Indiana has surged. Wisconsin has stood still.
History shows that programs don’t become Nebraska because of one bad season. They get there by reacting instead of adapting. Wisconsin is at that crossroads now.
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