This NFL season has been one of the most unpredictable in recent memory, and the Divisional Round only reinforced that theme. Half the games went to overtime, while a divisional rivalry turned into a full-blown blowout. Unfortunately for Three Picks and a Pass, the chaos worked against us, resulting in an 0-3 week.
C.J. Stroud’s implosion wasted an otherwise strong defensive effort by Houston, the 49ers unraveled against Seattle, and the Rams’ and Bears’ defenses cracked at exactly the wrong time. The reads were calculated, the outcomes weren’t there, and now it’s time to reset for Conference Championship Weekend.
With only two games on the slate, we’re switching things up slightly. This week, the “pass” moves to a general line, while both the moneyline and spread lean toward favorites for very different reasons. The total hinges on defense and injury status. Let’s see how we bounce back in the second-to-last week of the season.
Best Moneyline of the Week
Seattle Seahawks (-135 vs. Los Angeles Rams)
There were legitimate concerns about Sam Darnold’s health heading into last week, but they proved largely irrelevant once Kenneth Walker took over against San Francisco. While Darnold’s oblique remains something to monitor, after watching the Bears churn out 160 rushing yards against Los Angeles, Walker appears primed for another big performance.
The Rams, meanwhile, continue to search for consistency. Their offense struggled last week in a way we haven’t seen much this season, and Seattle’s defense, which ranks first in opponent points per game, is not the unit you want to face while ironing out issues.
Los Angeles remains dangerous, but based on current form and matchup dynamics, Seattle is the stronger straight-up play this week.
Best Spread of the Week
New England Patriots (-4.5 at Denver Broncos)
With the other matchup sitting at a tight 2.5, Patriots -4.5 stands out as the most attractive spread on the board.
This game projects as a low-scoring affair, but there’s a clear difference in stability. Bo Nix’s late ankle fracture dramatically altered Denver’s postseason outlook, and Jarrett Stidham stepping in under center does little to inspire confidence.
New England was fortunate to survive Houston, but as long as Mike Vrabel arrives with a disciplined defensive game plan, the Patriots should be able to control Denver’s offense, capitalize on short fields, and grind out a double-digit win. Realistically, the only threat to this spread is Drake Maye forcing mistakes and letting Denver’s defense do the scoring for them.
Best Over/Under of the Week
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (Under 42.5)
New England struggled offensively against the league’s second-ranked defense and now faces another top-five unit. Maye has enjoyed a strong rookie campaign, but this stage can be unforgiving for young quarterbacks, especially against elite defenses.
On the other side, Stidham will be making his first non-preseason appearance of the year in the AFC Championship. He’s a career backup with a limited résumé, and after what New England’s defense did to C.J. Stroud, there’s legitimate concern about how Denver’s offense will function.
Everything points toward a slow, defensive-driven game. Betting the under allows you to profit from what projects to be a grind rather than hoping for fireworks.
Lines to Pass On
Any Broncos Offense-Based Parlay
Am I beating a dead horse here? Yes, the pun is intentional.
There will be tempting lines attached to modest offensive projections for Denver. Stidham’s passing yard total sits at just 198.5, a number that feels low enough to entice action. That’s the trap.
Avoid rushing-based parlays as well. The assumption will be that Denver leans heavily on the ground game with RJ Harvey in the driver’s seat. The problem is game script. If the Broncos fall behind, Stidham will be forced to throw against a Patriots defense that will load the box early and dictate terms.
There’s simply no safe Broncos offensive parlay play this week, so the smart move is to stay away and save your money.
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