The first week of the NFL playoffs is behind us, and there was some incredibly competitive football throughout the weekend, even the Houston game, which was close right until it wasn’t. For Three Picks and a Pass, we finished a respectable 2-1, though our lone loss came from getting a little too cute with our own line of thinking.
The 49ers not only covered the +4.5 spread but won outright, just as we thought they could. Their defense played well enough to contain a disjointed Eagles offense and pull off the upset. Chicago and Green Bay played out like most Chicago games this season, with the Bears playing hero ball in the fourth quarter, scoring 25 points and pushing the game over the total. Unfortunately, I questioned Vegas for putting too much faith in Josh Allen, and they ended up being right, as Allen willed the Bills to a three-point win over a more talented Jaguars team and burned our moneyline play.
This week, we’re going a bit outside the box with both our spread and moneyline selections, focusing on teams playing their best football at the right time. Our over/under leans on a similar angle as last week, while the pass centers on a game that feels nearly impossible to handicap with any confidence.
Best Moneyline of the Week
Houston Texans (+105 at New England Patriots)
The Patriots are a young offensive team led by one of the most promising quarterbacks in the league. The issue is that Drake Maye is still developing, and the playoffs are a different animal altogether. Both of those realities showed up in the Wild Card round against the Chargers.
While the Chargers ranked in the top ten in points allowed this season, the Texans finished first, and that dominance continued last week as Houston held Rodgers and the Steelers to just six points while forcing multiple turnovers.
New England’s future is bright after a brief stay near the bottom of the league, but if last week is any indication, DeMeco Ryans has a clear formula for a deep playoff run: defense, defense, defense.
Best Spread of the Week
San Francisco 49ers (+7 at Seattle Seahawks)
Backing San Francisco as an underdog paid off last week, and with an even larger number this time, the 49ers again feel like a strong value play as a team peaking at the right moment.
Seattle enters as the top seed in the NFC and deserves to be favored, but the matchup is more nuanced than the line suggests. These division rivals know each other well and split the season series. Seattle’s 12-2 win a few weeks ago would easily clear this spread, but this week brings a key variable: Sam Darnold.
Reports indicate Darnold is dealing with an oblique injury but plans to play. Even if he suits up, it’s reasonable to expect some limitations. Given how tightly these teams typically play each other, a compromised quarterback could suppress scoring even further. San Francisco may not light up the scoreboard, but if they can slow Seattle down as well, this game could come down to field goals and stay comfortably within the number.
Best Over/Under of the Week
Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (Over 48.5)
Both teams were involved in wild games last week and needed to top 30 points to advance. These are two of the most explosive offenses in the league, and while each defense is solid, this matchup sets up as a fast-paced, pass-heavy shootout.
Matthew Stafford will look to clean things up, limiting turnovers while improving efficiency. On the other side, Chicago will need to find its rhythm much earlier than the fourth quarter. This Rams offense will not let off the gas. If the tempo plays out as expected, this total should push past 55 points with ease and threaten 700 combined yards of offense. This is easily the most confident over on the board this week.
Game to Pass On
Buffalo Bills at Denver Broncos
The truth is, nobody seems to know exactly how good the Denver Broncos are, and it’s just as difficult to gauge how much Josh Allen has left in the tank this season. That makes this game nearly impossible to bet with confidence.
Buffalo played better than expected against Jacksonville, but the performance was far from flawless. Denver’s defense is a legitimate unit, and with Gabe Davis out, the Bills’ receiving options are thinner than ever. That might make this matchup easier to project if there were more certainty around Bo Nix and the Broncos offense, but there isn’t. Nix has been inconsistent, Sean Payton’s playcalling has been questionable at times, and the receiving corps beyond Courtland Sutton is uninspiring. If there’s one game to stay away from this weekend, this is it.
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