Deni Avdija and Ryan Rollins led our last edition of the Most Improved Player Rankings. The former is the odds-on betting favorite at FanDuel, while Rollins has faded to +5000 after an eight-game span averaging 10 points per game and shooting 34.1% from the field.
A four-game injury absence saw Jalen Duren move from one of the main contenders to +7500. Anthony Black and Peyton Watson are two of the breakthrough players in FanDuel’s Most Improved Player betting market, with Jalen Johnson and Keyonte George tabbed as Avdija’s closest rivals.
1. Deni Avdija
Did anyone think Avdija had a 27/7/7 ceiling when the Blazers traded for him? A slight increase in production last season hinted that Avdija could be more than a plus role player, but even the most optimistic Avdija fans didn’t see him becoming an undoubted All-Star.
Missing four of Portland’s last six games hasn’t had too much of an impact on Avdija’s candidacy. A back injury is a concern and, if it lingers, could leave the door ajar for some of the other Most Improved contenders.
For now, Avdija is the clear frontrunner. Portland’s offense craters when he’s off the floor and the defense drops off. The Blazers are +9.7 per 100 possessions better with Avdija on the floor, and they wouldn’t be anywhere near the Play-In without him.
Making the transition from complementary player to a first option (and taking 10+ free throws per game) is one of the hardest developmental steps in the NBA.
2. Keyonte George
The long-term future of the Utah Jazz is looking bright. Utah is only -1 per 100 possessions with George and Lauri Markkanen on the floor and +15.7 per 100 possessions when George shares the court with Walker Kessler.
George is taking 3.9 more free throw attempts per game, his true shooting percentage has leapt from seven percent below league average to five percent above, and he’s dishing a career-high 6.6 assists per game.
The defense is still a work in progress, but the third-year guard has certainly improved on that end. Will Hardy was blunt with George about what was required and he’s delivered.
3.Peyton Watson
Every area of Peyton Watson’s game has improved. An injury-laden Nuggets team needed a breakout performer and that’s exactly what Watson has provided with career-best shooting from all over the court, shot creation, and energetic defense.
Denver is +8.5 per 100 possessions with Watson on the floor. Most notably, Watson’s presence with Jamal Murray keeps the Nuggets in the positive even when Nikola Jokić isn’t on the court, which has been particularly significant with the Joker’s recent injury absence.
More unassisted field goal attempts aren’t always a good sign with role players. In Watson’s case, it is. He’s giving Denver’s offense that bit more oomph, a little extra off-the-bounce creation. Plus, he’s draining more than 40% of his threes, which is exactly what Denver needs from the players it puts next to Jokić and Murray.
4. Nickeil Alexander-Walker
Nickeil Alexander-Walker’s previous career-high was 11 points per game across 46 games as a sophomore. He’s almost doubled his previous high watermark for points per game, while increasing his assists, rebounds, and stocks.
This has all come with the best true shooting percentage of his career. Atlanta has been better with just Alexander-Walker than when Trae Young was the lead guard without Alexander-Walker, per DataBallr’s on/off numbers.
His step forward as a shooter largely came with high corner three volume. Still a deadeye from the corners, Alexander-Walker is taking a higher percentage of his threes from above the break, yet he’s still making them at an impressive rate.
The defense is as impactful as ever. This is as much about opportunity as developing his skills, but Alexander-Walker clearly warrants acknowledgement in the Most Improved Player race.
5. Jalen Johnson
Johnson would be on the All-NBA Second Team if the season ended tomorrow. He’s made massive progress as a playmaker, averaging eight assists per game, with an increase in his pick-and-roll volume.
Making the leap from ascendant young player to true All-Star has often led to players winning this award. The argument with Johnson, though, is that he was already playing close to this level before suffering his injury last season.
This doesn’t feel like a “couldn’t have seen this coming” jump at all. Johnson was clearly trending in this direction. He’s improved, sure, but the players above him have made more dramatic changes to their games.
There’s every chance he wins this award or at least finishes in the top three. This placing isn’t writing off Johnson’s chances or downplaying the progress he’s made.
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