Take a look at the NHL’s over/under totals, and you’ll see one of two numbers for almost every game: 5.5 or 6.5.
If you’re used to betting on totals in other sports, that consistency might surprise you. After all, basketball and football have wildly varying totals depending on the teams involved. Even baseball and soccer, which also have only one way to score, offer very different overs and unders compared to hockey.
And more often than not, these numbers are highly accurate. So why are unders so predictable in the NHL? Here’s a look at how these totals bets come to be.
Hockey Plays At One Pace
In basketball, teams can manipulate the flow of the game based on how fast they like to play. High-scoring teams will try to get as many shots as possible; lower scoring teams will focus more on ending every possession with a shot. In football, an offense can try to score points quickly by passing, or more methodically by running the ball.
The NHL doesn’t have that. Scoring is all about positioning, and the fast flow of the game means that every team is going to play at a similar pace. Some teams might try to get more aggressive with their checking and others might look to create open space for their scorers, but that doesn’t change the pace of the game. Most nights, each team will generate between 20 to 40 possible scoring chances.
Given that a standard NHL goaltender will save about 91 to 93% of all shots, 60 shots a night will usually produce around six goals, give or take one. In hockey, the result has far more to do with one bounce here or there than it does with how quickly the game moves.
Goaltenders Are Usually Consistent
The best goaltenders in the world can usually be counted on to turn aside shots they can see. In the NHL, every goaltender is a top netminder. It takes a lot of traffic and creativity to generate a scoring chance that can beat a world-class goaltender.
Plus, unlike in other sports, the goaltender has one job: react to the puck and keep it out of the net. A baseball pitcher has control of the game and focuses solely on getting outs, but pitchers have to adjust to the game situation and determine what pitch is best. For example, if baserunners are on first and third with one out, a pitcher will often try to deliver something that can turn into a ground ball to get the double play.
Goaltenders don’t have to think that way. All they need to worry about is positioning themselves and making sure to follow the puck. That’s a difficult task, but it’s the same task every time. A goaltender doesn’t have to adjust strategies when making the save; they just have to read and react.
Totals Adjust Based on Penalty Numbers
Penalties matter in the NHL more than any other sport, because a penalty in hockey changes the strategy of the game for two minutes or more. When a team skates a player down, the way they play shifts while they’re shorthanded.
Over the course of a game, teams will usually see around two chances per period. That means for close to half the game on a normal night, teams are changing up their strategies on the fly.
The books know and understand this, and closely follow teams’ successes or failures with the power play. Teams with high success on the power play will see more games set at the 6.5 total, while teams with successful penalty kills or weak power plays will usually see a game set at 5.5.
NHL Teams Use Their Whole Rosters
If hockey allowed teams’ best players to be on the ice for 60 minutes, the totals would be much higher. However, the nature of hockey means that’s not possible, and that’s something no other sport offers.
In football, you’ll never see a star quarterback come out unless he’s injured. Baseball might have a pinch hitter, but that happens late and only when the manager needs to make something happen. Basketball makes substitutions, but that happens with the clock stopped and plenty of chances to get a star back in right away.
Hockey is different. Every player dressed for the game will get ice time, and even stars won’t spend more than 25-30 minutes of the 60 minute game on the ice. That means coaches have to cycle through to get fresh players and often don’t have their best six athletes on the ice at once.
In hockey, there just isn’t much room for chaos. The pace is fixed, the goaltending is elite, and every team is forced to use its entire roster. All of that naturally keeps scoring within a tight range, which is why unders tend to feel more reliable in the NHL than in almost any other sport.
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