The worst kept secret in the NHL became a reality on Tuesday, as the Edmonton Oilers hired Mike Babcock as their new coach.
It might be the most important decision the franchise has made since 1988, when Peter Pocklington traded Wayne Gretzky to Los Angeles. And as in 1988, it looks like the Oilers have made the wrong call.
At least Pocklington's hands were tied back then. He could not afford to hold on to Gretzky in the new era of the NHL, and he reasoned it was better to get something from the Kings than let him walk for nothing. It was not a total loss, either. Even though Edmonton crashed in the 1990s without Gretzky, the pieces Pocklington brought back from Los Angeles helped the Oilers win one final Stanley Cup in 1990.
The Oilers did not have to hire Babcock. In doing so, there is a reasonable argument that they have closed their own window for a Stanley Cup. Here is why.
Babcock's Reputation Precedes Him
There is a reason several former NHL players have warned the Oilers not to hire Babcock. It would be one thing if he were simply an old-school disciplinarian. John Tortorella carries that label too, and he just reached the Stanley Cup Finals with the Golden Knights.
But Babcock has often gone well past that line into outright bullying. He has a long history of mind games with players, ones that have left scars on some of his most talented athletes. Former Detroit Red Wings star Johan Franzen has said he lives with PTSD as a result of playing under Babcock. Other examples include benching Mike Modano to keep him from reaching 1,500 career games, and benching Jason Spezza with no explanation when Spezza made his return to Ottawa as a member of the Maple Leafs.
Players have drawn a contrast between Tortorella and Babcock by noting that Tortorella leaves the tough love at the rink. He has his critics, deservedly so, for how he treats players on the ice, but that rarely follows them off it. The same cannot be said of Babcock, who is blamed for partially derailing Mitch Marner's time in Toronto by forcing him to rank his teammates' effort levels, then sharing that list with the rest of the locker room.
It is telling that Marner just had his best postseason yet, in Vegas, under Tortorella.
Babcock Hasn't Won In Ages
If Babcock were still taking teams deep into the playoffs, a lot would be forgiven. But he has not done that in a long time. His only Stanley Cup victory came in 2008 with Detroit. To put that in perspective, Sidney Crosby, the opposing captain in that series, was just 20 years old at the time.
The Red Wings returned to the Finals in 2009, losing to the Penguins. Since then, Babcock is 3-6 in the playoffs and has not advanced past the second round. He has not finished higher than third in his division since 2011, a stretch of nine seasons.
He also has not coached behind an NHL bench since 2019. He was set to take over Columbus in 2023, but resigned before coaching a single game amid a scandal involving looking through players' phones. What made that especially galling is that Babcock had told the Blue Jackets in his interviews that he had changed. His conduct said otherwise, and at this point he does not have the results to argue the other side of it.
Edmonton's On a Time Crunch
The Oilers have two years left on Connor McDavid's contract. As long as they have McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, they will have a chance at a Stanley Cup. But the Oilers appear to be heading the wrong direction, and their stars know it. Edmonton finished second in a weak Pacific Division, then got eliminated in six games by an upstart Anaheim team.
The division is not getting any easier. Vegas remains a threat every year. Anaheim and San Jose are rapidly climbing the standings, and Vancouver and Calgary will soon have fresh draft capital to rebuild around. Then there is the Central Division, where Colorado, Dallas, and Minnesota field some of the best rosters in the league.
Edmonton needs to add talent around its two stars to make chasing a Cup there worthwhile. McDavid and Draisaitl are magnets for top players. But Babcock makes that significantly harder given his history. NHL agents have said their clients would rather skip playing for Babcock entirely than take the opportunity to play alongside McDavid and Draisaitl. That makes it that much harder to bring the missing piece to Alberta.
And if this season goes badly, McDavid might decide he has seen enough. It is no secret that the Toronto Maple Leafs would love to bring him back to Ontario. The Montreal Canadiens could also be interested as their own championship window begins to open. If McDavid concludes he cannot win in Edmonton, the Oilers will almost certainly trade him rather than risk losing him for nothing.
Bottom Line
Hiring Babcock looks like a high risk, low reward move for Edmonton. Yes, his name is on the Stanley Cup. And to be fair, he was not Edmonton's first choice. Bruce Cassidy was, but Vegas denied the Oilers permission to speak with him. Plan B looked reasonable too, but Peter Laviolette ended up taking the King’s job instead.
Babcock should not have been the third option, though. Darryl Sutter was available and brings both less baggage and more recent playoff success. The same could be said for Claude Julien.
Maybe Babcock really has changed, but nothing in his track record suggests it. Edmonton cannot afford to gamble its championship window on the hope that he has.
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