One of the biggest weekends of the college basketball season will produce a new No. 1 when the polls are released.
Duke will almost certainly move to No. 1 on Monday after defeating Michigan by five points in Washington. With No. 2 Houston losing twice, the Blue Devils should make the short jump from No. 3 to No. 1.
The rankings are not the most important thing at this stage. Duke’s focus is on securing the top overall seed, which is why it scheduled the game in Washington in the first place. The Blue Devils now have the inside track to the No. 1 overall seed and placement in the East Regional.
Michigan fell short on Saturday, but the Wolverines can hardly be labeled a loser. They still hold the edge in securing a No. 1 seed in the Midwest Regional and could very well see Duke again in Indianapolis.
That is still weeks away. For now, here is who helped themselves Saturday and who made their path more difficult.
Winners
Cincinnati
The Bearcats still have work to do, but after winning at Allen Fieldhouse against Kansas, Cincinnati has a path into the conversation.
They have now won four in a row, and with Texas Tech dealing with injuries, that upcoming stretch looks less daunting. Stranger things have happened, and an 18-13 Cincinnati team would at least merit consideration.
UCLA
The Bruins trailed Illinois 33-10 after 11 minutes. It would have been easy to fold, but they did not. UCLA cut the deficit to seven by halftime and won in overtime on Donovan Dent’s layup at the buzzer.
That result gives the Bruins a significant résumé boost.
The schedule also sets up well. They face struggling USC twice and host Nebraska in a no-risk, all-reward game. The only real concern is a trip to Minnesota, but even that would be a Quad 2 loss. UCLA significantly improved its tournament outlook.
Texas A&M
The depth of the SEC is evident: Oklahoma is 13–14, and a win in Norman still counts as a Quad 1 victory. That is exactly what Texas A&M accomplished, edging the Sooners by four for its second straight win.
The Aggies led for all but one possession, showing their recent skid was simply part of navigating a difficult conference schedule. Bucky McMillan has Texas A&M on the right side of the bubble in his first season in College Station, and the Aggies now own four Quad 1 road wins.
Even more importantly, there are no bad losses remaining on the schedule. Every game left, except Texas at home, is a Quad 1 opportunity. Texas A&M should feel confident about its résumé.
Losers
Houston
The Cougars likely eliminated any realistic chance of playing in the South Regional this week. Houston wanted a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the South, which will be played in the Rockets’ arena. After losses to Arizona and Iowa State, that path is now difficult to envision.
The selection committee typically separates the top four teams from a conference across the four regions. Duke, Michigan, and Arizona appear locked into No. 1 seeds, with Iowa State and UConn battling for the fourth. In either case, Iowa State would likely be placed in the South, preventing Houston from playing close to home.
For the Cougars to return there, they would likely need to run the table and defeat Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament. It is possible, but there is little margin for error.
Syracuse
This could be the end of the line for Adrian Autry. Syracuse is not headed to the NCAA tournament, but it needed to show improvement down the stretch to justify retaining its head coach. With a shorthanded North Carolina team visiting, this was an opportunity.
Instead, Syracuse fell behind early and never led. North Carolina secured a 13-point win without its best player, Caleb Wilson, dropping the Orange to 15-13.
Compounding the issue, Syracuse had already lost to a full-strength North Carolina team by 10 in Chapel Hill. Without Wilson and at home, the Orange performed even worse. That reflects on the coaching staff and raises real questions about Autry’s future.
Clemson
Clemson may now be in trouble.
A loss to Duke was expected, and defeats against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest, both bubble teams, were understandable. But a home loss to Florida State changes the outlook.
The Seminoles scored the final seven points, and Clemson has now lost four straight, placing the Tigers firmly on the bubble.
This is the opposite of the typical Brad Brownell trajectory. Clemson usually builds momentum in February and carries it into March. This season, the Tigers are trending in the wrong direction, and with Louisville next, the margin for error is gone.
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