Each year, playoff teams deal with the heartbreak of coming close to a title and try to reload in the offseason for another run. But some teams stand pat, or lose out on high-end free agents due to market limitations. Here are four teams that made the 2025 playoffs but have regressed or done little to improve and could be left out in 2026.
Cincinnati Reds
The Reds won 83 games in 2025 and barely snuck into the playoffs, drawing the short straw with a Wild Card matchup against the Dodgers. They were promptly eliminated in two blowouts.
Cincinnati did not make any major splash moves, but they did bring Eugenio Suárez back, which should boost the lineup. His 49 home runs across Seattle and Arizona in 2025 made him one of the most sought-after bats at the trade deadline, and now he returns to a hitter-friendly ballpark in Cincinnati.
The Reds will again rely on a young core, but given how close they were to missing the postseason last year, there is little margin for error. It is hard to see them getting back in 2026.
Boston Red Sox
Boston was active this offseason, but it still feels like the roster did not meaningfully improve. They traded for Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras and signed Ranger Suárez to a five-year deal, yet their projected win total only rose from 86.5 to 87.5.
The Red Sox won 89 games last year before falling to the Yankees in the Wild Card round. With the Yankees and Blue Jays both improving, Boston once again looks like a fringe Wild Card team rather than a clear playoff lock.
Cleveland Guardians
It looked like Cleveland was going to miss the playoffs in 2025 before going on a late-season surge. The Guardians trailed the Tigers by 11 games on September 4 and were below .500 at the time, but rallied all the way back to win the AL Central.
Since then, they have not added a single position player this offseason. Their biggest move was a well-deserved extension for José Ramírez.
The Guardians have built a reputation as a scrappy, resourceful team that finds ways to win, so a return to October would not be shocking. But they have not done much to give fans confidence that lightning will strike twice.
Milwaukee Brewers
Milwaukee won a league-best 97 games in 2025, captured the NL Central, and reached the NLCS. Despite that success, the offseason was quiet.
They traded away ace Freddy Peralta and third baseman Caleb Durbin, and while they did bring back Brandon Woodruff, his health remains a question mark.
There is no splash move here, but there is also no reason to doubt what has worked for this organization in recent years. The Brewers could once again contend for the division or a Wild Card spot, but missing the playoffs is a very real possibility.
Parting Shot
This, of course, does not mean these teams are guaranteed to miss the playoffs, and some could see breakout seasons from their young players that lead to strong years. For now, though, these look like the most likely teams to fall short in 2026.
Come back next week for the flip side, where we will look at teams that missed the playoffs in 2025 but could break through and make a run this year.
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