Nearing the halfway point of the regular season, the AL and NL MVP races have experienced plenty of twists and turns. Aaron Judge's candidacy took a big hit when he was ruled out for a prolonged period with a rib injury, leaving Bobby Witt Jr. and Yordan Alvarez as the two betting favorites in the American League.
In the National League, sportsbooks make Shohei Ohtani the overwhelming favorite with Kyle Schwarber, Matt Olson, and a few others in the mix.
Here is how our ballot would look if the season ended today.
AL
1. Yordan Alvarez
The best hitter in baseball this year, Alvarez's wRC+ is 21 points ahead of anyone else. He has been threatening to have a year of dominance like this for a while, and he has finally put it all together to lead the American League in fWAR on June 16.
No one can match his tally of 24 homers. It is very rare a Baseball Savant page is as awash with dark red, with the 28-year-old getting the ball in the air more often than ever before.
Most alarmingly for pitchers around the big leagues, Alvarez has also been pretty unlucky, with a .035 gap between his xwOBA and wOBA.
2. Nick Kurtz
Trailing Alvarez in wRC+, Kurtz is backing up a brilliant rookie season with another campaign of elite offense. The whiff rate and strikeout rate have decreased slightly, leading to Kurtz owning the highest walk rate in the majors.
It is almost unbelievable that a player who posted a 1.002 OPS as a rookie has improved across the board. Kurtz really has. It is a big ask for the Athletics' slugger to close the gap to Alvarez, but he is next in line to lead the race if Alvarez misses time.
3. Byron Buxton
Witt leads the AL in fWAR, but his 120 wRC+ is nowhere near what Alvarez, Kurtz, and Buxton have been doing. Buxton is one homer behind Alvarez and owns a 154 wRC+, which is six points ahead of Judge.
It is unlikely Buxton keeps this up. He will probably have an injured list stint at some point, his expected numbers are miles off the Kurtz and Alvarez standards, and he barely walks, which gives him a lower offensive ceiling. Still, the Twins' outfielder would receive a third-place vote from us if the season ended today.
NL
1. Shohei Ohtani
Ohtani is already worth 5.4 bWAR in 2026. He has a 381 ERA+ to go with a 169 OPS+, which has been climbing for several weeks during a prolonged offensive hot streak.
A healthy, two-way Ohtani is nearly unbeatable in an MVP race. This version of Ohtani, a top 10 NL hitter and a legitimate Cy Young contender on the mound, is somehow exceeding even the previous heights he has reached.
There is really no way a one-way player can get close to Ohtani when he is posting a season of this caliber. Even after a slow start offensively, he has left the competition far behind.
2. James Wood
Wood has the best wRC+ in the National League. Poor defense and a high strikeout rate are the only real knocks. Even so, he ranks in the 100th percentile in xwOBA and trails only Pete Crow-Armstrong and Ohtani in fWAR.
There is a very real possibility of a 40-40 season from the Nationals' outfielder, even though his sprint speed is only slightly above league average. He has leapt from being a good hitter to one of the very best position players in the sport.
3. Corbin Carroll
Carroll's wRC+ is 20 points off Wood's mark, but he trails only Ohtani, Wood, and Crow-Armstrong in fWAR. The underlying numbers are not quite as eye-catching, and Carroll only has 12 homers so far.
The difference is Carroll is an elite defender and one of the fastest players in the majors. He has increased his bat speed in each of the last two seasons to unlock greater power upside, while continuing to make sound swing decisions.
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