There are risers and fallers in every MLB season. It’s inevitable that some teams overachieve while others fall short of expectations. That can be due to injuries, poor roster decisions, or a complex combination of factors.
There are three teams that stand out as regression candidates in 2026. In part, that’s because they punched well above their weight in 2025. There’s also the consideration of divisional rivals improving.
Brewers
2025 record: 97-65
Milwaukee rode remarkable momentum to win 97 games. A quiet offseason has followed. They were 16th in xwOBA on offense and ranked as the third-luckiest lineup per the gap between their xwOBA and wOBA.
It’s not like the Brewers have a raft of prospects ready to inject fresh impetus. Logan Henderson should contribute, but Jesús Made is touch-and-go for 2026 after playing only five games at Double-A in 2025.
A Freddy Peralta trade is very much still in play, with several contenders searching for rotation help. It’s far from guaranteed that Sal Frelick, Brice Turang, and Jake Bauers will repeat their production from last season.
Milwaukee looks like an above average rotation accompanied by a lineup that could be around middle of the pack. That might still get them into the playoffs, but it would be a minor miracle if they’re anywhere near 100 wins.
Guardians
2025 record: 88-74
Cleveland was a parody of itself in 2025. A team renowned for pitcher development and weak offense ranked 1st in xwOBA from its pitchers and 30th in xwOBA from its hitters. It’s an achievement of sorts to win 88 games with an 87 wRC+.
While the Guardians have made a habit of contending with this blueprint, there’s no way they are as good in 2026. A huge amount relies on Chase DeLauter offensively, and the rotation behind Gavin Williams doesn’t have a great deal of upside.
Detroit is going to be strong again. The Royals have fortified their bullpen and added lineup depth with Lane Thomas and Isaac Collins. Minnesota and Chicago aren’t going to be good, but the balanced schedule means that doesn’t benefit the Guards as much as it would have done a few years ago.
It’s easy to just pencil the Guardians in for 85+ wins. Over the last 10 seasons, they have had a .540 or better winning percentage on eight occasions. This roster, though, is more likely to be below .500 than to win 90 games.
Astros
2025 record: 87-75
Since winning 106 games and the World Series in 2022, Houston’s win total has decreased each year. A pattern of 90, 88, and 87 is hardly calamitous, but it reflects an organization that has undergone a severe talent drain.
Tatsuya Imai was an exciting acquisition, but it’s a big ask for the Japanese right-hander to replace Framber Valdez’s production. Carlos Correa is a good rather than great hitter when healthy at this stage of his career. Jose Altuve has endured significant decline and might only be a league average bat in 2026.
The farm isn’t exactly bursting with big-league-ready talent. Yordan Alvarez being healthy and productive is a necessity for the lineup, while it’s unlikely Jeremy Peña replicates his 135 wRC+ from 2025.
A strong bullpen is the biggest positive about this iteration of the Astros. They have managed to tread water despite losing Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker in recent years, but doing so this time around is too much of a stretch. They look like no more than a .500 ballclub.
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