Thirty teams. Thirty over/under win total picks.
The new MLB season is fast approaching, so let’s take a look at each team’s win total and which way we’d bet.
Athletics – Over 75.5
Seeing as we identified the Athletics as a longshot division winner pick, we’re taking the over here. The A’s went over this line last year. Admittedly, it was their first year with more than 69 wins since 2021, but it wasn’t a flash in the pan.
Depth Charts projects 80 wins. There’s a world where the A’s get up toward 85 or above with a talented offensive core led by Nick Kurtz and a serviceable pitching staff.
Arizona Diamondbacks – Under 79.5
Carlos Santana and Zac Gallen are solid veteran additions. Gallen’s return and the signing of Michael Soroka give the rotation a reasonable floor.
This team only won 80 games in 2025 with half a year of Josh Naylor and Eugenio Suárez. Corbin Burnes is not going to miss most or all of the 2026 campaign. Lourdes Gurriel Jr. has a torn ACL. There’s every chance Ketel Marte gets dealt during the season.
Atlanta Braves – Under 88.5
Spencer Strider has to get back to his All-Star level self if the Braves are going to win 89 games. Projections still love this offense, but we’re firmly in “need to see it to believe it” territory.
The back end of the bullpen should be formidable with Robert Suarez joining Raisel Iglesias. Injuries to Spencer Schwellenbach and AJ Smith-Shawver leave a lot of uncertainty around the rotation, though.
Baltimore Orioles – Under 86.5
The Orioles’ line is a stay away from a betting perspective. It’s so hard to get a read on this team. Sure, the rotation could be in the top 10, but it might be subpar again.
How does the offense look if Adley Rutschman doesn’t get back on track? What if Colton Cowser and Samuel Basallo are mediocre hitters? The strength of the division pushes us slightly toward the under, but we wouldn’t be surprised if Baltimore won 90+ games.
Boston Red Sox – Over 87.5
Bringing in Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin to replace Alex Bregman isn’t what the Fenway faithful were hoping for. Boston, though, breathed fresh life into its rotation with Johan Oviedo, Sonny Gray, and Ranger Suárez.
Like Baltimore, and you may spot a theme with the AL East teams, this is a very tough line to pick. It feels almost spot on. Boston looks like an 87 or 88 win team. They’re more likely to go over, but it’s no more than 60/40.
Chicago Cubs – Over 88.5
Chicago won 92 games in 2025 and got better in the offseason, even after losing Kyle Tucker in free agency. Edward Cabrera upgrades the rotation, the bullpen was overhauled, and Alex Bregman can replace most of Tucker’s production.
The Cubs were even better than their record suggested. They had 96 wins per their Pythagorean win loss, with very few holes in their roster.
Chicago White Sox – Under 67.5
The bullpen could be pretty good. The rotation might be okay. Look, it’s not easy finding reasons to be positive about the White Sox.
Their offense being competent depends on Munetaka Murakami hitting the ground running. Chase Meidroth, Kyle Teel, and Colson Montgomery need to be productive, too. That’s a lot of uncertainty for a team with 162 wins over the last three seasons.
Cincinnati Reds – Over 81.5
Cincinnati has one of the best rotations in baseball. The lineup has plenty of holes, but there’s upside in the form of Matt McLain, Sal Stewart, and Noelvi Marte.
The Reds have gone over this line in two of the last three seasons. Bullpen additions give them some more margin for error, and there’s no reason to believe this rotation will regress.
Cleveland Guardians – Under 78.5
Cleveland has only gone under this line once since 2012. They are the masters of overachieving. The 2025 season ended in another division title, despite the Guardians posting a sub .500 Pythagorean win-loss record.
Their track record suggests this should be an over. The roster wasn’t improved over the winter, though, and there’s a chance they trade away veterans if the season starts slowly.
Colorado Rockies – Over 54.5
Have the Rockies added enough talent to win 12 more games than last season? No. Has their division gotten weaker? Also no.
Still, it doesn’t take much to see Colorado going over this number. Paul DePodesta and Josh Byrnes are overhauling the organization, so you can expect improvement around the margins.
Detroit Tigers – Over 85.5
Detroit has gone over this line in each of the last two seasons. Framber Valdez and Justin Verlander reinforce the rotation behind Tarik Skubal.
A young position player core is only going to keep improving. Kevin McGonigle and Max Clark should arrive at some point in 2026, barring injuries.
Houston Astros – Under 85.5
Forget Houston’s average wins over the last decade. Forget how often they have hit their over.
This Astros team is a long way from the dynastic run they had. Framber Valdez is gone, Jose Altuve and Carlos Correa are past their peaks, and the rotation behind Hunter Brown is nothing to get excited about.
Kansas City Royals – Over 82.5
The Royals fall into the “too close to call” bucket. For the sake of this exercise, we’re taking the over, partly because we’re under on Cleveland.
Maikel Garcia, Bobby Witt Jr., and Vinnie Pasquantino are a strong core. Jac Caglianone could be en route to a Nick Kurtz level breakout, and Isaac Collins was a good addition. The rotation could be top 10 if Cole Ragans and Noah Cameron have strong years.
Los Angeles Angels – Over 70.5
After winning 72 games in 2025, the Angels should take a step forward. Grayson Rodriguez upgrades the rotation, and veteran additions should give them at least a league average bullpen.
Offensively, only Logan O’Hoppe and Christian Moore project to be below league average. This team could quietly push toward .500 if healthy.
Los Angeles Dodgers – Under 103.5
Even with a roster that would put some All-Star teams to shame, 103.5 is too high. The Dodgers haven’t gone over this number since 2022 and won only 93 games in 2025.
Pitching injuries are a built-in risk with this staff, and several of their pitchers are likely to miss time. There’s also the age factor with Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman.
Miami Marlins – Under 72.5
Cabrera was traded to the Cubs. Sandy Alcantara is likely to be dealt this year, too. Where are the Marlins going to find 73 wins?
Kyle Stowers is the only hitter projected for a wRC+ above 102. A few unexpected breakouts are required for Miami to get close to 75 wins.
Milwaukee Brewers – Under 84.5
Milwaukee has comfortably gone over this number in five straight seasons, including 97 wins in 2025. It’s still not an easy call on 84.5 after Freddy Peralta, Collins, and Durbin were traded.
The offense suddenly has a couple of holes and the rotation has a low floor. This group is more likely to win 80 games than 90.
Minnesota Twins – Over 73.5
Pablo López tearing a ligament in his elbow makes this a trickier call. With López, Minnesota had a strong enough rotation to reach 75 plus wins without much stress.
Without him, the tear down that began last summer could continue. Still, four months of this roster should put the Twins on track to hit the over.
New York Mets – Over 90.5
When Pete Alonso became an offseason casualty, it would have been outlandish to call this a dream winter. However, the offense, rotation, and bullpen were quickly revamped, with Bo Bichette, Marcus Semien, Devin Williams, and Peralta among the arrivals.
Add in the young pitchers New York has developed and this looks like a team capable of pushing toward 100 wins.
New York Yankees – Over 90.5
It wasn’t a blockbuster offseason for the Yankees, nor did it need to be. Gerrit Cole returns in the first half and Cam Schlittler broke out in the postseason.
Shortstop is the only clear weakness in the lineup. The bullpen looks strong on paper, and the rotation should land somewhere between very good and solid.
Philadelphia Phillies – Under 89.5
Suárez departed and Zack Wheeler won’t be ready for Opening Day. A rotation that was among the best in baseball suddenly looks average.
Unless Nick Castellanos really was the cause of clubhouse issues, the Phillies will struggle to keep pace with the Mets. The bottom of the lineup is light for a contender.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Over 78.5
When was the last time Pirates fans had reason to be optimistic in February? They haven’t gone over 78.5 since 2018.
This year feels different. Paul Skenes, top prospect Konnor Griffin, and Bubba Chandler headline a talented group, and the lineup is more than competent after adding Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe, and Marcell Ozuna.
San Diego Padres – Under 84.5
Late additions like Castellanos, Miguel Andujar, and Germán Márquez don’t change the bigger picture. San Diego is weaker after losing Dylan Cease, O’Hearn, Luis Arraez, and Robert Suarez.
The ceiling is still there, but it requires several things to break right for them to reach 85 wins again.
San Francisco Giants – Over 80.5
It was a quiet offseason for the Giants. Buster Posey addressed needs by strengthening the rotation, adding a center fielder, and bringing in more contact with Arraez.
San Francisco has hovered around .500 in recent years. They won’t threaten the Dodgers, but a full year of Rafael Devers gives them a real shot at a wild card push.
Seattle Mariners – Over 90.5
Re-signing Josh Naylor and adding Jose Ferrer to the bullpen qualifies as a strong offseason. This is one of the most complete teams in the American League, even before top prospect Colt Emerson arrives.
Seattle should win the division comfortably and is a real 100 win candidate.
St. Louis Cardinals – Under 68.5
Even if JJ Wetherholt makes an immediate impact, St. Louis will struggle to reach 70 wins. This could be one of the five worst rotations in the majors, and the lineup looks below league average.
With a rebuild underway, the roster could get even weaker before the trade deadline.
Tampa Bay Rays – Over 76.5
Tampa Bay has gone over this number in all but one season since 2007. The division is brutal and projection systems don’t love the offense, but 77 wins is a low bar for this organization.
They find value every year, and with their rotation plus Carson Williams on the way, they should get there again.
Texas Rangers – Over 83.5
Brandon Nimmo fills an outfield need and MacKenzie Gore strengthens the rotation. This team is improved from 2025.
Their ceiling still depends heavily on the health of Jacob deGrom and Nathan Eovaldi, which gives them a wide range of outcomes.
Toronto Blue Jays – Over 87.5
Yes, the Jays lost Bichette, but they added Kazuma Okamoto, Cease, Cody Ponce, and Tyler Rogers to a team that won 94 games in 2025.
They deserve the benefit of the doubt after a World Series run, even if they got plenty of good fortune along the way.
Washington Nationals – Under 65.5
Gore is now a Ranger and CJ Abrams could follow him out the door. Washington has chosen to extend its rebuild rather than build around its current core.
Their Pythagorean record had them at 61 wins last year. Without Gore, this could be the worst pitching staff in baseball, and the offense could be near the bottom if more pieces are moved.
*Odds from FanDuel Sportsbook, correct as of Feb. 18.
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