Even into the second half of the season, there are NBA teams better than their record suggests and teams with a win/loss mark that flatters them. Overachieving in the clutch, a favorable schedule, or unsustainably hot perimeter shooting are just three factors that can lead to a team having a misleading record.
Sure, the All-Star break is approaching, but that doesn’t mean the standings are set in stone. The playoff positions are congested in both conferences, and there’s going to be plenty of movement between now and the end of the regular season.
In other words, records don’t always tell the full story. And no team illustrates that disconnect better right now than the Los Angeles Lakers.
Los Angeles Lakers (27-17)
The Lakers might have an MVP candidate, but little about their season implies this winning percentage can be maintained. A problematic defense keeps the Lakers a long way from being a title contender, and winning 50 games seems pretty far-fetched as of Jan. 26.
Los Angeles is 23rd defensively against top 10 offenses. Since the start of the year, the Lakers are a middling team in net rating and in the bottom 10 defensively. They are -3.0 per 100 possessions with LeBron James and Luka Dončić on the floor, including a defensive rating that would rank 28th in the NBA on the season.
The Deandre Ayton signing hasn’t worked. And, once again, the Lakers are lacking perimeter shooters. Per Crafted NBA, they are in the bottom 10 in team shooting quality.
Since the end of November, Los Angeles has gone 12-13. That looks like an accurate representation of where this team belongs, even with Dončić posting gaudy offensive numbers.
Pistons (33-11)
The Pistons are good. They might be the Eastern Conference favorite by the time the playoffs begin. Still, a 33-11 record flatters them a little.
Detroit is only 15th in adjusted shot quality, with a 28-16 shot quality record. Being 11th in offense doesn’t suggest they are going to be a 60+-win team. Only five teams have a lower rim and three rate than Detroit.
This is a seriously formidable Pistons team. Dependence on Cade Cunningham to create in the halfcourt is a little concerning when looking ahead to the playoffs, but JB Bickerstaff has a deep rotation and their physicality wears teams down. This defense is going to make Detroit a hard team to face in a seven-game series.
And yet, how many people really believe the Pistons can win the title? Who thinks the current construction of this roster is good enough to go all the way?
Detroit has soared higher than most preseason predictions believed they could. Everyone from the front office to the players on the end of the bench deserve credit. It’s still reasonable, though, to ponder whether this record is perhaps a couple of wins more than the Pistons’ true talent level.
Suns (27-19)
Yes, the Suns are one of the stories of the season. Jordan Ott is deservedly the Coach of the Year favorite. Phoenix has played hard every single night, the defense has been on the fringe of elite, and the offense has somehow been serviceable.
Does that mean the Suns are a 48-win team? Dillon Brooks is taking 17.1 shots per game. Grayson Allen and Collin Gillespie join Brooks and Devin Booker as the only players in double-digit shot attempts per game.
All of those players are having wonderful seasons. Mark Williams has been healthy and effective in the middle. Royce O’Neale, Ryan Dunn, and Jordan Goodwin have excelled. Don’t get this wrong as Phoenix is a positive story, a sign of what can be achieved even when a roster is light on top-end talent.
That doesn’t, however, mean this team should or will win 48 games in this Western Conference. I’m not downplaying Ott’s work or the commitment this team has shown. It is simply the reality of an NBA where teams are so stacked.
The Suns are 22nd in offense against top 10 defenses and 22nd in halfcourt points per possession. This is a competitive, battling team, but for all the successes of this regular season, Phoenix is still a long way from being a contender.
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