The San Francisco Giants are 20-30. This is their worst start to a season since they lost 98 games in 2017. San Francisco is 29th in wRC+ and 17th in xERA.
Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, and Matt Chapman are under contract into the 2030s. Jung Hoo Lee, on one of the worst contracts in MLB, is being paid through 2029.
It was meant to be a year of contention for the Giants. Buster Posey made a bold move by hiring Tony Vitello, and Bryce Eldridge wasn’t far away from the majors. Eldridge is getting limited playing time on the big-league roster, and Vitello’s decisions are under the microscope.
A first full year of Adames, Devers, and Chapman promised so much after the Giants had spent a decade chasing a hitter of Devers’ caliber, plus they had a fearsome top two in Logan Webb and Robbie Ray.
Webb, a Cy Young contender guaranteed to throw 190+ innings, is on the injured list for the first time in years. Ray is no more than a trade chip for San Francisco as a pending free agent.
Then, there’s Adrian Houser and Tyler Mahle, the pair of low-cost starting pitchers signed to back up the two aces. Neither have impressed.
Meanwhile, James Tibbs III is dominating in the minors for the Dodgers, and Kyle Harrison is dealing for the Brewers. Both players were involved in the Devers trade.
What Are Their Options?
It’s easy to look at an expensive, veteran-laden team like the Giants and demand they blow it up. What does ‘blowing it up’ even entail at this point though?
No one is giving up anything of value for Devers, Chapman, or Adames. San Francisco would have to attach assets to get any executive to even consider taking on Lee’s money.
Ray is pretty much a lock to be traded this year anyway. The same should go for Luis Arraez, given his effectiveness and his upcoming free agency.
The standard move in a year like this is to flip upcoming free agents for prospects in the high minors, wherever possible. Tearing it down, meanwhile, would suggest something much more drastic. The only button Posey really could press is flipping Webb, who is one of the best pitchers in baseball and has two-and-a-half years of team control.
Heliot Ramos, Keaton Winn, and Landen Roupp could also be moved in part of a teardown, but the Giants would need a haul for Winn or Roupp, considering they are under control through 2030. A true teardown would try and get significant prospect capital for at least one of those players, but how does that align with a big-market team paying Devers, Adames, and Chapman for the rest of the decade?
Stuck in No-man’s-land
Posey’s tenure has been defined by proactivity in trading for Devers, trading away Patrick Bailey, and calling up Eldridge. Barring a brash next step, Posey may have to accept a more passive summer, with Ray and Arraez getting dealt without revamping the farm system.
San Francisco are in this position not only because of their poor free-agent signings. This is an accumulation of years of unproductive drafting, years of missed first-round picks, and very limited player development. Swings and misses in the draft have caught up with them, and a desperation to land a free-agent hitter led to the extreme overpay for Lee.
There is no quick way out of where the Giants find themselves. Trading Roupp or Winn, which by the way are two of very few positives this season, would be a rebuilding move. Posey will surely be trying to plan a future that involves Roupp and Winn as members of the next competitive team.
This anemic offense won’t get fixed midway through a season. In fact, this lineup is destined to be porous for the foreseeable future unless Devers, Chapman, and Adames start to produce.
The situation looks bleak. Tearing down this roster will still leave a bloated payroll thanks to the big three and Lee, but with little-to-chance of contending in 2027 and 2028. Sticking with the current group is hardly appealing given their 20-30 record, though Posey has already made two of the big moves that were at his disposal when the season started.
Playing the waiting game is probably San Francisco’s best option. The Giants need their veterans to finally get going at the plate to create some optimism for next season. They also need their prospect pipeline to continue developing. And if this season keeps heading south, they may eventually find themselves evaluating how much trade value Logan Webb still carries once he returns healthy.
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