A Look Back at 2025
Regular Season: 5-8 (1-7 SEC)
Notable: The Bulldogs went 5-1 when they gave up fewer than 435 yards and 0-7 when they allowed more. The one loss was to Texas in overtime.
What Changed This Offseason
Key Departures:
QB: Blake Shapen (NFL)
RB: Davon Booth (NFL)
WR: Brennan Thompson (NFL)
TE: Seydou Traore (NFL)
OL: Jayvin James (Transfer), Luke Work (Transfer)
LB: Nic Mitchell (NFL)
DB: Jahron Manning (NFL)
Key Additions:
WR: Marquis Johnson
TE: Riley Williams
DL: Dealyn Evans, Amaree Williams
DB: Quentin Taylor
Coaching Changes
Defensive Coordinator: Zach Arnett was Mississippi State's defensive coordinator from 2020 to 2022 and head coach in 2023. Across his three seasons as MSU's defensive coordinator, Arnett's defenses ranked top five in the SEC in 28 different defensive efficiency and production categories.
Breaking Down The Offense
Key Returners:
QB: Kamario Taylor
RB: Fluff Bothwell
WR: Anthony Evans III
OL: Canon Boone, Blake Steen
Strength: Running Game
Fluff Bothwell has the ability to hit 1,000 yards this season and double digit touchdowns if he can stay healthy. Kamario Taylor has shown his athletic ability running the ball in the two games he played in last season, along with the spring game. He is an elite athlete with the ball in his hands, and the coaching staff should look to maximize that skill set whenever possible.
Biggest Question: Offensive Line
The offensive line struggled in pass protection a season ago, and there are still questions about whether this group has enough top-end talent to improve significantly. That matters because the success of the entire offense hinges on the line's performance. Mississippi State needs to establish the running game, and it also needs to keep its young quarterback upright. The sophomore quarterback is getting plenty of hype from local media, but I remain unconvinced he is ready to live up to those expectations. Much of his development and success this season will depend on how well the offensive line protects him.
Breaking Down The Defense
Key Returners:
LB: Zakari Tillman, Jalen Smith, Tyler Lockhart
DB: Kelley Jones (3rd Team All-SEC), Isaac Smith
Strength: Kelley Jones
A future first round pick in the 2027 NFL Draft and 3rd Team All-SEC a season ago, Jones has played in 27 career games at Mississippi State and started 17. At 6 foot 4, 195 pounds, he was named the fastest player on the team in last offseason's speed competition. A true number one cornerback, he will be one of the top corners in the SEC this year and is fully capable of shutting down his matchup every week.
Biggest Question: Defensive Line
This is really a three-part question. Will the defensive line be able to stop the run? Will it generate a pass rush? Does it have enough depth?
Last year, the unit struggled badly in the first two areas, ranking last in the SEC against the run and second-to-last in sacks. The Bulldogs brought in some solid transfers to help address those concerns, but questions about the overall depth of the group remain. This unit still has plenty to prove in SEC play.
X-Factor: Coaching
The reason coaching is the X-Factor rather than the quarterback is simple: Jeff Lebby has to start winning SEC games. Since taking over in 2024, he is just 1-15 in conference play and 7-16 overall. While he survived last offseason's coaching carousel, patience is wearing thin, and both the administration and fan base need to see tangible progress this year. The offensive talent is there for Mississippi State to take a step forward, but Lebby has to get the most out of it. Defensive improvement is equally important. If Zach Arnett can elevate the defense into the top half of the SEC, this team has a chance to surprise people.
Schedule Breakdown
Win total: 4.5 Over (-120) Under (-104)
Most likely wins: vs. UL Monroe, vs. Tennessee Tech
It is imperative that the Bulldogs take care of business against both of these lesser opponents. They open the season against the Warhawks and host Tennessee Tech late in the year. Slip-ups in either game would be disastrous.
Toughest stretch: vs. Alabama, @ LSU, vs. Oklahoma, @ Texas
This is a brutal stretch for a coach on the hot seat. Road trips to Texas and LSU, two teams I am very high on heading into the season, only make it more challenging. Mississippi State likely needs to steal at least one of these games to stay on track for its win total and to ease some of the pressure surrounding Lebby.
Potential Swing Games: @ Minnesota, @ South Carolina, vs. Missouri, @ Ole Miss
Mississippi State's season, and potentially Lebby's future, may be determined by the three swing games that follow the opener against UL Monroe. All three opponents are beatable, but none should be considered easy wins. A 3-0 stretch would put the Bulldogs in excellent position to exceed their over-under total, while 2-1 would keep them firmly in the conversation. Anything worse would leave little margin for error heading into SEC play. Because these games come consecutively from Weeks 2 through 4, they will go a long way toward defining the trajectory of the season. The Egg Bowl remains a rivalry game, and as we all know, rivalry games rarely follow a script.
Final Outlook
The one thing Mississippi State has over the other teams in the bottom half of the SEC from a season ago is continuity at head coach. Whether that proves to be an advantage remains to be seen. The offense has generally been productive under Lebby, but the defense has not been reliable. That side of the ball should improve under new DC Arnett.
Like many second-tier SEC teams, the biggest question is whether Mississippi State has the depth to compete over the course of a full season. If everything breaks right from a health standpoint, this team could be bowl eligible or better. But that is rarely the reality of life in the SEC. Injuries happen, and when they do, Mississippi State's depth simply does not compare to programs like Georgia.
I cannot stress enough how important those three swing games from Weeks 2 through 4 will be. Getting through the first month of the season with a winning record would provide a tremendous confidence boost for a team like this. If the Bulldogs stumble during that stretch, it becomes difficult to identify enough wins later on the schedule to comfortably clear their win total.
As mentioned, Lebby has won just one SEC game as head coach. Last season, Mississippi State finished with five wins, highlighted by an early triumph over Arizona State and victories against three lesser opponents.
It is always difficult to project an SEC team to win fewer than five games. The challenge for Mississippi State is that its third non-conference game comes on the road at Minnesota, which is far from a guaranteed win. Even if the Bulldogs prevail in that game, they would still need to double their SEC win total from the previous two seasons combined just to beat their over.
Prediction: 4-8 (Under)
Up Next: Missouri
If this was your kind of read, you’ll like what’s next. Get The Sandman Ticket, our free, weekly newsletter with picks, insights, and a little bit of everything we love about sports.
